[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 050609
SWODY2
SPC AC 050607

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1207 AM CST THU JAN 05 2006

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE BLI 10 SSE PDX
25 NNW MFR 45 WSW CEC.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AS ANOTHER STRONG UPPER JET BEGINS TO NOSE INTO/THROUGH THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL PACIFIC...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT FLOW
DOWNSTREAM WILL BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. 
A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH...THROUGH CREST OF RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S...
GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO WEAKEN LATTER FEATURE.  FARTHER DOWNSTREAM
...FLOW WILL BE SLOWER TO DE AMPLIFY.  IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LARGER SCALE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH MAY ACTUALLY
SHARPEN SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE ITS AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT TOWARD THE 
WESTERN ATLANTIC.

...WEST OF ROCKIES...
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH...PROGGED TO
MIGRATE INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST LATE SATURDAY/
SATURDAY EVENING...COULD BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  LOWER END POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN
CONFINED TO MOIST LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW REGIME WEST OF THE
CASCADES.

MARGINAL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL COULD ALSO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS. 
HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG MODELS CONCERNING
EVOLUTION/PROGRESSION OF MID-LEVEL IMPULSE INTO THIS REGION. 
UNCERTAINTY IS TOO LARGE TO OUTLOOK RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THE
PRESENT TIME.

...EAST OF ROCKIES...
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY APPEARS VERY LOW.  COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY 12Z FRIDAY.  THOUGH CENTER OF UPSTREAM
RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATION/MOISTENING OF BOUNDARY LAYER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL SOMETIME LATER THIS WEEKEND.

..KERR.. 01/05/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM