[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 150714
SWODY2
SPC AC 150713

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 AM CST WED FEB 15 2006

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WRN STATES ON THURSDAY...AND EXTEND INTO THE ERN PACIFIC...AS PART
OF THE POLAR VORTEX PROGGED TO BE OVER SRN CANADA RETROGRADES TOWARD
THE PAC NW.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN SWLY FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OVER THE
CONUS. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF A LEAD
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES NEWD ACROSS THE
LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY/MIDWEST TO LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z
FRIDAY.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...A SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE
SRN GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD THROUGH CENTRAL MO INTO NRN OK AT 12Z
THURSDAY.  A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE
NEWD INTO CENTRAL/NRN IL BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS LOW AND THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE E AND SE THURSDAY
NIGHT.

...MID MS RIVER VALLEY SWWD TO ARKLATEX REGION...
STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY NEWD INTO THE
SRN GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE AND WARM
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR NWD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S REACHING CENTRAL PARTS OF IL/IND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT
SURFACE HEATING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MID MS/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEYS...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING
SWWD JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM SRN MO/AR TO NERN TX. 
THUS...THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY...THOUGH WEAK WITH MUCAPE UP TO 500
J/KG...SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SRN MO TO NERN TX.

ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY ONGOING AT THE START OF THE DAY 2
PERIOD FROM MO INTO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY WITHIN WAA REGIME NORTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT AND ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL IL SWWD INTO NRN AR...
WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY EVENING SWWD INTO NERN TX. 
ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER THESE AREAS...
STRONG FORCING DECREASING WITH SWD EXTENT SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY OVER SRN MO INTO
NERN TX.  NONETHELESS...WEAK INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL/GUSTY WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREATS INTO THE EVENING.

...OH RIVER VALLEY...
STRONGEST FORCING IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND AN
ATTENDANT 100+ KT WSWLY MID LEVEL JET TRANSLATES FROM IL TO WRN PA. 
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER THIS FAR NORTH...A STRONGLY
FORCED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT SURGES
EWD ACROSS THIS AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.  THUS...THE POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM IND INTO OH AND PARTS OF
KY.  PARTS OF THIS REGION MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK IN
LATER OUTLOOKS IF GREATER INSTABILITY IS FORECAST.

..PETERS.. 02/15/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM