[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 060602
SWODY2
SPC AC 060600

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CST WED DEC 06 2006

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

THE LAST IN A SERIES OF AMPLIFICATIONS WITHIN PERSISTENT LARGE-
SCALE POLAR TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. APPEARS TO BE
UNDERWAY...MUCH AS FORECAST BY THE MODELS.  THIS IS OCCURRING MOSTLY
IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ...EMANATING FROM
THE CANADIAN NORTHWEST TERRITORIES...NEAR THE ARCTIC CIRCLE.  THE
GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THIS IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z
THURSDAY...BEFORE TURNING EAST ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...INTO NORTHERN AND MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
AREAS BY 12Z FRIDAY.  BENEATH THE CONFLUENT REGIME UPSTREAM OF THE
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AXIS...THE CENTER OF A MASSIVE COLD SURFACE RIDGE
IS PROGGED TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
AND OZARK PLATEAU.  AND...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD AIR WILL
ADVANCE OFF ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS FEATURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
STABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION...WITH
GENERALLY NEGLIGIBLE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

...FLORIDA...
MODIFICATION OF LOWER LEVELS IN THE WAKE OF A PRIOR COLD INTRUSION
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME MID-LEVEL
INHIBITION.  A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY/THURSDAY EVENING
...AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD SURGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PENINSULA.  BUT...ANYTHING MUCH BEYOND A BRIEF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
APPEARS MINIMAL.

...GREAT LAKES...
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPE SEEM LIKELY TO BECOME ENHANCED
THURSDAY...AS LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC COLD CORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE WARMER LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION.  IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL
ACCOMPANY STRONGER LAKE EFFECT CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
OPEN WATERS INTO SOUTHEAST SHORES OF LAKE HURON.

..KERR.. 12/06/2006