[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 060609
SWODY2
SPC AC 060608

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0108 AM CDT SUN AUG 06 2006

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID-UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FCST TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
ACROSS NRN CONUS...AMIDST PREVAILING AMPLIFICATION OF MEAN RIDGE
ACROSS ROCKIES AND TROUGH OVER QUE.  MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW -- NOW
EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER MB -- IS FCST TO DEAMPLIFY
DAY-1 AND ACCELERATE EWD ACROSS NRN QUE DAY-2. SPEED MAX ALOFT --
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKER PERTURBATION NOW OVER WRN ALBERTA -- IS FCST
TO DIG SEWD THROUGH W SIDE OF MEAN TROUGH...AND ACROSS PORTIONS SRN
QUE/NRN NY/NRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS PERIOD.

AT SFC...COLD FRONT NOW ANALYZED FROM NRN MN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS ERN GREAT LAKES...MID ATLANTIC AND
NEW ENGLAND REGIONS THROUGH 8/12Z.  FRONT WILL MOVE MORE SLOWLY SWD
ACROSS OH VALLEY REGION...WHILE STALLING AND BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE
ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS.

...NERN CONUS TO MO...
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD
FRONT DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS...ORGANIZED LARGELY IN LINEAR/SEGMENTED
FASHION.  ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS OUTLOOK AREA WITH LEWP/BOW
FORMATIONS POSSIBLE...DAMAGING WIND BEING MAIN THREAT. PRIND
STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC FORCING SHOULD REMAIN FARTHER N ACROSS QUE AND
CANADIAN MARITIMES...HOWEVER ASSOCIATED SWLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
ADVECT FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE CLOSER TO ATLANTIC COAST AND
KEEP MOST OF RELATIVELY STABLE MARINE AIR MASS SHUNTED FARTHER E
ACROSS CAPE COD REGION AND DOWNEAST MAINE.  IN COMBINATION WITH SFC
DIABATIC HEATING...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT/MAINTENANCE.

PASSAGE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER SFC COLD FRONT...AND
ACROSS PREFRONTAL WARM/MOIST SECTOR...IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE
DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR AND POTENTIAL ORGANIZATION OF TSTMS ACROSS
THIS AREA.  ALTHOUGH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL WIND PROFILES
ARE PROGGED...DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR MAY SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURE
WITH ANY DISCRETE ACTIVITY THAT MAY DEVELOP.  ORGANIZED SVR
POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SWWD EXTENT AHEAD OF
FRONT...CORRESPONDING TO PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND
WEAKER LARGE SCALE FORCING.  HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF MESOSCALE
FOCI...RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND STRONG SFC HEATING MAY HELP TO
CONCENTRATE LOCALIZED/CLUSTERED MULTICELL SVR POTENTIAL ALMOST
ANYWHERE FROM MID/UPPER OH VALLEY WWD ACROSS MO/ERN KS.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONG SFC HEATING...AT LEAST MRGLLY
FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
RELATIVE CONCENTRATION OF TSTMS WITH HAIL/GUSTS NEAR SVR LEVELS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.  STRONG DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR IS LIKELY ALONG AND N OF SFC FRONTAL ZONE...WHERE BOUNDARY
LAYER MOIST AXIS WILL BE EXTENDED WWD AMIDST ELY FLOW COMPONENT. 
WITH LACK OF MORE ROBUST MIDLEVEL WINDS OR DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR...MESOSCALE PROCESSES WILL DETERMINE RELATIVE CONCENTRATIONS
OF SVR POTENTIAL.

...NWRN CONUS...
DAMAGING GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH MOST INTENSE CONVECTION ACROSS THIS
REGION...MAINLY DURING MID-LATE AFTERNOON.  MID-UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF
LOW NOW EVIDENT OFFSHORE CA IS FCST TO DEAMPLIFY AND EJECT NEWD
ACROSS PORTIONS NRN CA AND ORE DURING THIS PERIOD.  MODELS ARE
COMING INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THIS PROCESS...WITH
ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS INTERIOR ORE
DURING PEAK AFTERNOON WARMING. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE MARGINALITY AND
SPORADIC DISTRIBUTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

...WRN GULF COASTAL PLAIN...
RELATIVE CONCENTRATION OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS
REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN ELY FLOW ALOFT.
 STRONG SFC HEARING AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES -- MAINLY OUTFLOW
RELATED -- MAY CONCENTRATE SVR POTENTIAL WITH A FEW MULTICELL
CLUSTERS LIKELY TO HAVE BULK OF STG-SVR WIND POTENTIAL.

..EDWARDS.. 08/06/2006