[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 061717
SWODY2
SPC AC 061716

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT SUN AUG 06 2006

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NERN
U.S....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS...

...NERN U.S...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SERN CANADA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EWD
TONIGHT AND DIG ESEWD TOWARD THE NERN U.S. MONDAY. IN RESPONSE...A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD INTO WRN NY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT ALLOWING SFC
DEWPOINTS TO RISE INTO THE 60S F ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY FROM PARTS OF
NEW ENGLAND EXTENDING SSWWD THROUGH NY...PA AND MD. INCREASING
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOW 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES IN THE 30 TO 45 KT RANGE SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE INSTABILITY IS LOCALLY MAXIMIZED. SEVERE
MULTICELLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE LIKELY
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AROUND PEAK HEATING. ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON...LAPSE RATES
ESPECIALLY AT MID-LEVELS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STEEP
SUGGESTING A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT LIKELY.

...CNTRL PLAINS...
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SWD INTO SRN KS AND WRN MO. AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F SHOULD RESULT IN AN
AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. AS THE CAPPING INVERSION
WEAKENS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 30 TO 35 KT
RANGE MOSTLY DUE TO DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THIS SUGGESTS SEVERE
MULTICELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT LIKELY
WITH THE LARGER THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS. HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

...NRN CA/ORE...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NRN CA MONDAY
SPREADING STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON
IN NRN CA AND ORE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN NRN CA AND ORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR PROFILES FOR
SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION THAT WILL
OCCUR MONDAY REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS BY
AFTERNOON...HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS. HOWEVER...WILL NOT UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK ATTM. A
SLIGHT RISK MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN LATER OUTLOOKS ONCE CERTAINTY
CONCERNING INSTABILITY INCREASES.

..BROYLES.. 08/06/2006