[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 280556
SWODY2
SPC AC 280555

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU...

...EAST TX/AR...
A LARGE LINEAR MCS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
SOUTH OF A DEEPENING UPPER-LOW. MODEL FORECASTS AGREE WITH THIS
SCENARIO WITH A SQUALL-LINE EXTENDING FROM OK SWD ACROSS EAST AND
CNTRL TX. AS THE UPPER-SYSTEM TRANSITIONS NEWD DURING THE
DAY...STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN THE LINEAR MCS
WHICH SHOULD AFFECT AREAS OF FAR EAST TX...LA...ERN OK AND THE
OZARKS BY AFTERNOON.

AT LOW-LEVELS...MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS LIKELY
INCREASING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S F AS FAR NORTH AS THE SRN
OZARKS. THIS MAY ALLOW POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN
INTENSIFICATION OF THE LINEAR MCS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN LA AND SRN AR SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WITH 
LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASING DURING THE DAY. THIS WOULD AID THE WIND
DAMAGE POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS IN THE LINE. ALTHOUGH
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE THAT STEEP...LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE
LINE. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY INITIATE TO THE WEST ACROSS ERN OK AND
NE TX WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN A DRY SLOT
WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE UPPER-LOW. STORMS MAY
REMAIN MORE DISCRETE IN THIS AREA AND SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IF MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS
BEFORE THE SEVERE THREAT GRADUALLY DIMINISHES IN THE EVENING HOURS.

...KS/WRN MO...
AN UPPER-LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS SATURDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WRAP NORTH AND WWD
AROUND THE UPPER-LOW AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F SHOULD BE IN
PLACE ACROSS WRN MO AND ACROSS THE ERN HALF KS. SFC HEATING AND THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LOW SHOULD ALLOW
DISCRETE STORMS TO INITIATE BY THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE SLOWLY NWD
ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN KS AND
WRN MO SHOW MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WHICH WILL LIKELY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. ANY
SEVERE THREAT THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED NEAR PEAK
HEATING.

..BROYLES.. 04/28/2006