[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 281729
SWODY2
SPC AC 281728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN IA SWD TO THE TX/LA
GULF COAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS -- ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG
DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD -- WILL DEEPEN AND TAKE ON A MORE NEGATIVE
TILT WITH TIME WHILE MOVING SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW INITIALLY EXPECTED OVER NERN TX/ERN OK/ERN
KS SHOULD DEEPEN AND SHIFT NWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY.  COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS ERN OK/ERN KS INTO
MO/AR...WHILE MOVING MORE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS NRN LA/SERN TX THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...ERN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE/LOWER MS VALLEY...
LARGE/COMMA-SHAPED AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO BE ONGOING
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.  THE MOST
INTENSE CONVECTION WITHIN THIS LARGER PRECIPITATION AREA -- POSSIBLY
IN THE FORM OF AN ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT -- IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM ERN OK SWD INTO ERN TX.

WITH STRONG SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW LIKELY BLOWING DENSE UPPER
CLOUDINESS DOWNSTREAM FROM ONGOING STORMS...DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
BE LIMITED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.  THUS...DESPITE
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SPREADING NWD ACROSS TX/LA INTO
AR...INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG
MIXED-LAYER CAPE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

DESPITE THIS...STRONG UPPER SYSTEM AND ADVANCING COLD FRONT SHOULD
HELP SUSTAIN A VIGOROUS LINEAR-TYPE MCS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL/MORE CELLULAR CONVECTION POSSIBLE AHEAD OF LINE. 
STRENGTH OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /50 TO 60 KT FLOW FROM THE S AT
LOW-LEVELS VEERING TO SSWLY AT 65 TO 70 KT AT MID-LEVELS/ SHOULD
SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT -- PARTICULARLY FROM ERN TX/LA NWD INTO SERN
KS/SRN MO.  WITH INSTABILITY LIMITED...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT MAY BE
IN THE FORM OF WIND...THOUGH SOME HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.  A LESSER SEVERE THREAT MAY EXTEND AS FAR N AS
IA...THOUGH DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH NWD EXTENT SHOULD TEMPER THE
DEGREE OF THREAT.

MAIN LINE OF STORMS SHOULD CROSS SERN MO/AR/NRN LA AND REACH THE MS
VALLEY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...THOUGH THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH INSTABILITY FORECAST TO REMAIN LIMITED E OF
THE MS VALLEY.

..GOSS.. 04/28/2006