[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 251722
SWODY2
SPC AC 251721

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT TUE APR 25 2006

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SERN AL...CNTRL AND SRN GA...SRN SC AND NRN FL...

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE SEWD AND MAY UNDERGO SOME AMPLIFICATION AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THE TN VALLEY. EARLY WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM SWRN
LA NEWD THROUGH NERN AL AND INTO NRN GA...THEN SEWD AS A BACK DOOR
FRONT ACROSS SC. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD DURING THE DAY. LOW LEVEL
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR S OF THESE
BOUNDARIES. SOME DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER...MODEST LAPSE RATES...AREAS OF ONGOING CONVECTION AND
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT OVERALL DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY AOB 1000 J/KG EXPECTED. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITHIN THE WEAKLY
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT AND SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR BY LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST
BETWEEN THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF. THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP MUCH
STRONGER KINEMATIC FIELDS BETWEEN 850 AND 550 MB ACROSS PARTS OF SRN
GA...SC AND NRN FL AS THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES SEWD...WHILE THE
NAM IS MUCH WEAKER. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS WOULD SUPPORT A
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE/DAMAGING WIND EVENTS IF
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION COULD OCCUR. GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES
AND POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION...WILL
MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...IF IT
BEGINS TO APPEAR THAT WIND FIELDS AND INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER
THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MIGHT BE
NECESSARY IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

..DIAL.. 04/25/2006