[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 260602
SWODY2
SPC AC 260601

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 AM CDT WED APR 26 2006

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER WITH EWD MOVEMENT OF LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
THROUGH THE SWRN STATES ON THURSDAY...WITH THE GFS/NAM FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF/UKMET...EACH MODEL SUGGESTS STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER LEVEL
SWLY WINDS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/TRANS PECOS REGION DAY 1 WILL
CONTINUE DAY 2...WITH NWWD MOISTURE ADVECTION. ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7.5-8 C/KM IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD EWD ATOP THE NARROW AXIS OF MOISTURE RETURN...RESULTING IN
MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG TRANS PECOS REGION TO SERN NM. 
THE EML SHOULD CAP MUCH OF THE AIR MASS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SW TX AND NM.  

EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES INCREASING TO 40-50 KT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR PERSISTENT ROTATING UPDRAFTS...WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREATS AS STORMS MOVE NEWD OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS.  LLJ STRENGTHENING/VEERING TO SLY
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITHIN
LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME ACROSS WRN TX...WITH AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL.

...PARTS OF CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY APPROACHING BC COAST...IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS DAY 2.  DESPITE MEAGER MOISTURE RETURN
THIS FAR NORTH...WEAK INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP DUE TO COMBINATION OF
NRN EXTENT OF EML SPREADING INTO CENTRAL PLAINS AND COLD MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES /-18 TO -22 C/ WITH TROUGH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS.  DESPITE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR BECOMING SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS ACROSS
NEB...WEAK INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS.  THUS...WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS
TIME.

..PETERS.. 04/26/2006