[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 101732
SWODY2
SPC AC 101730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT MON APR 10 2006

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF NE KS...SERN
NEB...SWRN IA AND NWRN MO...

...SYNOPSIS...

LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE NEWD
INTO SRN CANADA BY EARLY TUESDAY. IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY BY THE START OF THIS PERIOD. BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE
FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM PARTS OF MN SWWD THROUGH WRN IA...SERN NEB
INTO NERN KS. A STRONGER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW APPROACHING
CA WILL EJECT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE...A WEAK WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SWRN
PORTIONS OF THE FRONT AND LIFT NEWD INTO N CNTRL OR NERN KS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. 

...NERN KS...SERN NEB...SWRN IA AND NWRN MO...

MOISTURE OVER THE GULF REMAINS LIMITED WITH ELY TRAJECTORIES
EMANATING FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ERN STATES MAINTAINING AN
INFLUX OF CP AIR. DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S OVER
THE WRN GULF TO AROUND 50 NWD OVER CNTRL TX. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
THAT WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY OVER THE PLAINS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO ADVECTION OF MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NWD. DEWPOINTS
FROM 50 TO 55 WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS AND
MIDDLE MS VALLEY TUESDAY. IN ADVANCE OF SWRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH...A
PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER WILL SPREAD EWD ABOVE THE MODEST MOIST AXIS AND
CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE LIMITED
MOISTURE...COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND SURFACE HEATING SHOULD
SUPPORT MLCAPE FROM 500-1000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF
NERN KS INTO SERN NEB AND SWRN IA. THE EML WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO
A CAP MOST OF THE DAY IN THIS REGION. SOME ELEVATED STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE EARLIER IN THE PERIOD IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME OVER PARTS
OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY. STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
LATE AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM NERN KS INTO SERN
NEB AS LARGE SCALE AS ASCENT INCREASES DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
UPDRAFTS TO ROTATE WITH ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THE
PRIMARY THREATS. STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS AND CLUSTERS
AS THEY SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY WITH A DIMINISHING
SEVERE THREAT BY MID EVENING.

..DIAL.. 04/10/2006