[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 110502
SWODY2
SPC AC 110501

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 AM CDT TUE APR 11 2006

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...OH VALLEY...

WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WILL PRECEED UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER PORTIONS
OF THE OH VALLEY EARLY IN THE DAY2 PERIOD.  THIS FEATURE WILL FORCE
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT ACROSS IL INTO IND MID DAY...WITH TRAILING
PORTIONS OF THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO STALL OVER NRN AR LATE IN THE
DAY.

UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN WEAK SUBSIDENT
ENVIRONMENT THAT IS NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION/ADAPTATION OF GULF ENVIRONMENT. 
RESULTANT DOWNSTREAM LOW LEVEL MOISTENING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO
THE OH VALLEY WILL BE SUPPRESSED WITH 50S SFC DEW POINTS POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO HOWEVER SUGGEST CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG
COLD FRONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF
UPPER VORT WHERE ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED.  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP SWWD ACROSS ERN IL/IND ALONG THE OH RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE
BOOTHEEL OF MO WHERE WEAKENING CONVERGENCE AND UPPER RIDGING WILL
SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE
ISOLATED HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS...HOWEVER MEAGER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
APPEAR TOO LOW TO WARRANT A RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 04/11/2006