[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 081707
SWODY2
SPC AC 081706

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1206 PM CDT SAT APR 08 2006

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/
SOUTHERN FL...

...CENTRAL/SRN FL PENINSULA...
STRONG GULF COAST STATES SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME
ABSORBED BY NRN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS/EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FIRST HALF OF DAY 2 PERIOD...WITH SRN EXTENT SHEARING SW-NE ACROSS
THE SRN FL PENINSULA.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN FL PENINSULA SUNDAY.

GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK UPPER FORCING AND VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW
S OF COLD FRONT LIMITING BETTER CONVERGENCE...SURFACE HEATING WITHIN
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH MODEST LAPSE RATES IS EXPECTED TO
PROVIDE THE MAIN IMPETUS FOR WARM SECTOR THUNDERSTORMS.  IN
ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT
MOVES SWD INTO THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MUCAPE UP TO 2000
J/KG/. 30-35 KT OF SFC-6 KM SHEAR SUGGESTS SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. 
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY WITH
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP AND/OR INTERACT WITH SEA/LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED.  SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE SRN
FL.

...WRN STATES...
ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS...CURRENTLY ORIENTED WSW-ENE
FROM THE ERN PACIFIC TO THE PAC NW...IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE INLAND
ACROSS THE WRN STATES SUNDAY.  A SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING AROUND
THE WRN/SWRN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH NEAR 33N 142W IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INLAND ACROSS SRN CA AND THEN TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN/FOUR
CORNERS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.  MODELS SUGGEST A FORCED LINE OF
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NV/SRN
ID INTO UT AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE SPREADS EWD ACROSS THIS REGION.  LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD
PRECLUDE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.  ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE WEST...COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES WILL AID SCATTERED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...MAINLY INLAND DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

..PETERS.. 04/08/2006