[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 090555
SWODY2
SPC AC 090555

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT SUN APR 09 2006

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NRN PLAINS...

LATE EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A STRONG SPEED MAX
WILL EJECT FROM BASE OF LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL
ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
ADVECT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS WY INTO THE DAKOTAS BY EARLY
EVENING ENHANCING ASCENT AHEAD OF WEAK SFC LOW WITHIN WARM ADVECTION
ZONE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL BE
EFFICIENT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED TO AID
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG LEE TROUGH FROM WRN SD INTO
PORTIONS OF NWRN NEB.  IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS
THIS REGION AROUND 00Z WITH AN UPWARD EXPANSION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AS LLJ INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO UPPER SHORTWAVE.  MEAGER
MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND THIS
SHOULD REDUCE THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TO
ISOLATED ACTIVITY.  HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS WITHIN
ELEVATED CONVECTIVE MODE NORTH OF WARM FRONT...AND PERHAPS GUSTY
WINDS FOR ANY STORMS THAT FORM NEAR THE WARM SECTOR WHERE CONVECTION
WILL BE NEAR-SFC BASED.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS INTO NWRN PORTIONS OF MN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD TUESDAY
MORNING.

..DARROW.. 04/09/2006