[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 071712
SWODY2
SPC AC 071711

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1211 PM CDT FRI APR 07 2006

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN GULF
COAST STATES AND CAROLINAS...

...NERN GULF COAST STATES...
A LARGE MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AND DESTABILIZATION AROUND MID-DAY SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SRN/ERN AL...CNTRL/SRN
GA AND NRN FL. STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
AND SFC LOW MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MOIST
PROFILES WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. IN
ADDITION...AS THE TROUGH DIGS SEWD...TEMPS ALOFT WILL COOL AS THE
CORE OF THE UPPER-TROUGH PASSES. THIS WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES FROM
NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION WHICH COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY AND
STRONG SHEAR SUGGESTS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL. IF STORMS ORGANIZE INTO A LINEAR ORIENTATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST...THEN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
WOULD ALSO BE LIKELY DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
AT LOW-LEVELS. IF THE CELLS TEND TO REMAIN DISCRETE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS SRN AND
CNTRL GA TO THE WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
TRANSITION EWD INTO NRN FL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE THREAT SLOWLY DECREASING DURING THE EVENING HOURS
DUE TO WEAKENING INSTABILITY.

...CAROLINAS...
A POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE OZARKS TONIGHT
WILL OPEN AND DIG SEWD INTO THE GULF COAST STATES. WIDESPREAD
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL SPREAD EWD INTO THE SRN
APPALACHIAN MTNS AND CNTRL CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWWD FROM A SFC LOW IN VA ACROSS THE WRN
CAROLINAS. WARMING SFC TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F MAY RESULT
IN POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS BY
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
(0-6 KM SHEAR 55-65 KT) WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. IF
MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ERN NC/ERN SC AS
SUGGESTED BY NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS ESPECIALLY WITH
SHORT-LINES AND BOW ECHOES THAT DEVELOP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WHEN LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE STEEPEST. AS THE
UPPER-TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THE ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EWD
INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE EVENING HOURS ALLOWING THE SEVERE
THREAT TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION.

..BROYLES.. 04/07/2006