[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 140617
SWODY2
SPC AC 140617

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0117 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2005

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S
CKV 35 SSE BNA HSV 35 ENE CBM 35 S CBM 30 ENE JAN 40 NE HEZ 30 NNE
POE 20 ESE LFK CLL 25 NW AUS 45 E SJT 15 N ABI 20 S SPS 10 S MLC 45
ENE FSM 25 WNW DYR 45 NNE MKL 35 S CKV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PIE 25 SE AYS 20 SSW
FLO 25 NE FAY 35 NNW RWI 15 SE DAN 40 ENE HKY 25 NW MCN TOI 35 WNW
CEW 45 NNE MSY 45 W HUM ...CONT... GLS 45 NNW VCT 50 E DRT 35 ENE
P07 35 SSW MAF 45 SSW LBB 25 WSW GAG 25 E P28 25 NW CNU 25 SE SZL 25
SE MTO 40 E TOL 30 W BFD 20 NW ITH 45 SW SLK 20 N PBG ...CONT... 80
NW CMX 25 ENE MSP 25 SE 9V9 40 SE MBG 35 W DIK 70 WNW CTB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS
TO THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS
THROUGH THURSDAY. A LEADING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WERE
CURRENTLY CONTRIBUTING TO WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE SRN PLAINS. AS STRONGEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LIFT NEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
CANADA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST STATES WHERE STRONG ASCENT WILL ACT ON INCREASINGLY MOIST
TROPICAL AIR MASS BEING TRANSPORTED NWD BY CIRCULATION AROUND
OPHELIA.

THE TRAILING EXTENSION OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD MORE GRADUALLY
SWD FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE SRN PLAINS. THE NEXT UPSTREAM IMPULSE
TO AFFECT STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TRAILING SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY WAS
ALREADY EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS LOOPS
OVER SRN CA. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO
THE TN VALLEY DURING THURSDAY AND RESULT IN WAVE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE FRONT FROM OK TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.

IN THE NRN STREAM...A LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSE WILL MOVE EWD ALONG THE
U.S./CANADA BORDER FROM MT TO MN AND RESULT IN AN AXIS OF
STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS ACROSS
MN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH
OF FORCING AND DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION LEND CONSIDERABLE FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO SEVERE TSTM THREAT OVER THESE AREAS.

...SRN PLAINS TO MID/LOWER MS VALLEY...
A MATURE AND POSSIBLY SEVERE MCS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY TO THE OZARKS AS STRONG MID/UPPER
LEVEL WAVE DEVELOPS EAST FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. FORCING FOR
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND MCV
DYNAMICS...COUPLED WITH VERY MOIST AND DESTABILIZING AIR MASS FROM
SERN OK ACROSS THE ARKLATEX...WILL MAINTAIN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
EWD/SEWD ACROSS THESE AREAS. NUMEROUS ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS ARE
LIKELY AS WAVE CYCLONE FURTHER INTENSIFIES ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE
AND MOVES EAST ACROSS AR DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONG LIFT ALONG THE
ADVANCING FRONT/OUTFLOW...AND STRENGTHENING WLY FLOW THROUGH THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERE...SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SEVERE
SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MS
VALLEY THROUGH THE EVENING.

TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT/OUTFLOW MAY EXTEND WSWWD BENEATH A
CAPPED BUT UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM NERN TO CNTRL TX THROUGH THE DAY.
PERSISTENT LIFT ALONG THIS TRAILING BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH STRONG
HEATING SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THESE AREAS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30KT ACROSS THIS REGION
SUGGESTS A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE
COULD RESULT FROM THIS ACTIVITY WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO AN
MCS AND SPREAD TOWARD THE GULF COAST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

...NERN SD TO NERN MN...
NAM/NAMKF ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL DEVELOP WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF NRN STREAM SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...GFS IS FORECASTING A MUCH LOWER AMPLITUDE
IMPULSE AND LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS AREA.
NONETHELESS...THERE IS SOME CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED
CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THE BORDER AREAS FROM MT TO MN. WHILE
ONE OR TWO MARGINAL HAIL REPORTS OR A STRONG WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...CURRENT CONFIDENCE IS BELOW THE 5 PERCENT THRESHOLD
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE.

..CARBIN.. 09/14/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.