[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 131743
SWODY2
SPC AC 131742

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PRX 40
SSW SPS ABI BGS 40 WSW CDS AMA DHT EHA LBL END UNO ARG 45 SSW JBR
PBF 40 NE TXK PRX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW MRF MRF INK 35
ENE CVS 40 S RTN 45 SW PUB MTJ CNY PUC VEL CDR 35 N VTN 50 ENE ANW
BUB BBW MCK HLC RSL SLN OJC DEC CMI AZO OSC ...CONT... HUL CXY HSS
RMG TCL JAN GGG TYR SEP BWD DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE CRE GSB 25 ESE
ORF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN PLAINS TO OZARKS...

...SYNOPSIS...
NRN STREAM ALOFT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW FROM
PACIFIC NW ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES TO QUE.  SEVERAL MAINLY
WEAK/LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS ARE FCST TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS
CENTRAL/NRN CONUS.  WEAK SRN STREAM TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SRN CA -- IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER ERN NV/WRN UT.  RESULT SHOULD BE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM WRN NEB TO NRN AZ BY 15/00Z...MOVING
EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS BY END OF PERIOD.  13/12Z
OPERATIONAL MODELS...SPECTRAL/NGM/ETA AND 09Z SREF MEMBERS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF THIS PROCESS BUT NOT
AMPLITUDE OF RESULTANT TROUGH.

SFC FRONTAL ZONE  IS NOW ANALYZED FROM LS SWWD ACROSS WRN IA AND TX
PANHANDLE.  GIVEN PRESSURE RISES AND NLY FLOW COMPONENT OBSERVED
ACROSS NERN NM AND TX/OK PANHANDLES BEHIND FRONT ATTM...EXPECT IT TO
MOVE FARTHER S ACROSS SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH REMAINDER DAY-1 THAN
SHOWN BY MODELS.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FRONTAL WAVE CYCLOGENESIS --
AHEAD OF SRN STREAM TROUGH -- INVOF CDS-ABI AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. 
SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD EXTEND FROM THAT AREA EWD ACROSS RED
RIVER VALLEY AREA AND ARKLATEX...THEN NEWD ACROSS OH...BY 15/00Z.

...SRN PLAINS THROUGH OZARKS...
ONGOING MCS MAY BE PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EARLY IN PERIOD
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN WRN OZARKS AND CENTRAL KS/OK BORDER REGION. 
EXPECT THIS COMPLEX TO PRODUCE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT MAY ACT AS
ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND N OF SYNOPTIC
SFC FRONT.  SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS --INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS BODY OF OK AND ERN TX/OK
PANHANDLES.  ALL MODES OF SEVERE WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND THERE IS
SOME CONCERN FOR TORNADOES GIVEN PROGGED LOW LEVEL AND EFFECTIVE
SHEARS N OF FRONT.  LOWEST LCLS...LARGEST LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS...STRONGEST DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC SHEARS AND MOST FAVORABLE
BUOYANCY ARE EXPECTED TO JUXTAPOSE ALONG AND N OF SFC FRONT ACROSS
OK AND ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES.  MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
EFFECTIVE SHEARS 55-65 KT...STRONG VEERING WITH 200-300 J/KG 0-3 KM
SRH...AND MID 60S TO LOW 70S SFC DEW POINTS SUPPORTING UP TO 3000
J/KG MLCAPES IN PRE-STORM AIR MASS.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER S ALONG
DRYLINE...ATOP DEEPLY MIXED AND STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER. 
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS MAY OCCUR FROM ANY SUCH ACTIVITY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO MCS
AFTER DARK THAT COULD AFFECT ERN OK AND AR WITH HAIL AND POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING GUSTS.

...TN/OH VALLEYS TO ERN GREAT LAKES...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS AND SMALL BANDS ARE EXPECTED
INVOF SFC FRONTAL ZONE THAT IS FCST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS REGION. 
STRONGEST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FALL WITHIN 18Z-00Z TIME FRAME. 
SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS MARGINAL ATTM...MAINLY IN FORM OF ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE GUSTS.  BECAUSE OF STRONGLY PARALLEL ORIENTATION OF MEAN
FLOW VECTOR AND FRONTAL ZONE...SUSTAINED/DISCRETE TSTMS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED.  ALTHOUGH STRONG ANVIL-LEVEL FLOW IS FCST...WEAKNESS OF
BOTH WINDS AND LAPSE RATS IN MIDLEVELS...RELATIVE TO FARTHER
SW...SHOULD LIMIT ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.

...ERN NC...
LATEST NHC TRACK PROGS FOR OPHELIA WILL PLACE COASTAL PLAIN...SOUND
SIDE SHORES AND OUTER BANKS IN FAVORED SECTOR FOR ENLARGED LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS -- N THROUGH ENE OF CENTER. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS FOR
TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE WEAK INSTABILITY...POSSIBILITY OF
UNFAVORABLE CONVECTIVE MODE CHARACTERIZED BY LACK OF DISCRETE
STORMS...AND SMALL COVERAGE OF MOST FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES OVER
LAND.  A TORNADO OR TWO APPEARS POSSIBLE BUT THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR
SUFFICIENT TO INTRODUCE CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM.

REF LATEST NHC ADVISORIES -- I.E. WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC -- FOR
LATEST TRACK/INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND TROPICAL WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR
OPHELIA.

..EDWARDS.. 09/13/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.