[SWODY2] SWODY2

Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2 SWODY2 at goshenarc.org
Thu Oct 27 17:30:37 UTC 2005


ACUS02 KWNS 271729
SWODY2
SPC AC 271728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT THU OCT 27 2005

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW EED 65 W DRA
65 E TPH 45 ENE P38 55 N PUC 45 SSE LND 25 ESE SHR 45 SE 81V 15 S
SNY 20 NNW LHX 30 N CVS 15 SSW GDP 45 SW DMN 45 WNW SAD 40 S FLG 50
NNW GBN 45 WNW EED.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH -- INITIALLY FORECAST OVER THE W COAST STATES -- IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO THE INTERIOR ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. 
MORE SPECIFIC TO THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST...A
SMALLER-SCALE/SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER SRN CA IS FORECAST TO
REACH THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY 29/12Z. ELSEWHERE...A LARGE
TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE ERN QUARTER OF THE
CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A CORRESPONDING/SLOWLY-PROGRESSIVE
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BETWEEN THE WRN AND ERN TROUGHS.

...SRN ROCKIES INTO WY...
MARGINAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION -- RESULTING FROM COMBINATION OF
DIURNAL HEATING AND COOLING ALOFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH --
SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION.  GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS
FORECAST ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON THE
EVENING...AND SHIFTING MAINLY INTO NM THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
 OVERALL...STORM INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK DUE TO LACK OF
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY.

..GOSS.. 10/27/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.








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