[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 190601
SWODY2
SPC AC 190600

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CST SAT NOV 19 2005

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE MOB 30 N TLH
50 ENE ABY 20 N VDI 10 NNE CHS 30 SSE CRE.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED AND
ENERGETIC ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SERN U.S. THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THIS
COMPLEX PATTERN EVOLUTION BEGINS TO ENSUE DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD AS
MID LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS.
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE TILT
TROUGH...LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY AND ASCENT BENEATH ENTRANCE REGION
OF UPPER JET ARE FCST TO INTENSIFY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ENEWD TO
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. EVENTUALLY...ONE OR MORE SURFACE LOWS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE NRN/NERN GULF AND PROBABLY TRACK NEWD ACROSS NRN FL
WHILE CONSOLIDATING/DEEPENING. THIS SCENARIO IS FURTHER COMPLICATED
BY THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF T.S. GAMMA FCST TO BE NEAR THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL BY SUNDAY EVENING.

LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES A TREND ESTABLISHED IN PREVIOUS 12Z MODEL
RUNS INDICATING A SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/LOW ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. BY EARLY SUNDAY. THIS SCENARIO IS
SUPPORTED BY LATEST NAM...NCEP SREF MEAN...AND NOGAPS. THE GFS
APPEARS TO BE ODD MODEL OUT WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER
TROUGH...AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE LOW...OVER FL BY LATE IN THE
DAY 2 PERIOD/EARLY MONDAY.

MODEL CONSENSUS IN PATTERN EVOLUTION WOULD APPEAR TO FAVOR A SLOWER
AND SLIGHTLY LESS ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE NERN
GULF/NRN FL AREA THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN
INCREASING AMPLITUDE/INTENSITY DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE BEYOND
ABOUT 48 HOURS...SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE LATER HALF OF
THIS OUTLOOK.

...SOUTHEAST/FL...
BROAD REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD AND RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCREASING
PRECIPITATION OVER THE GULF AND FL. CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY SHOULD
ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE...AS LARGE SCALE
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH ACTS TO LOWER
STATIC STABILITY. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK/LIMITED OVER MUCH OF FL AND THE SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER... DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS
MAY INCREASE BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND COULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN
INCREASE IN STRONGER TSTMS MOVING ONSHORE BY EARLY MONDAY. AT THIS
TIME THE RISK OF ORGANIZED TSTMS APPEARS TOO LOW/UNCERTAIN FOR THE
INTRODUCTION OF SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES.

..CARBIN.. 11/19/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.