[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 040557
SWODY2
SPC AC 040556

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 PM CST THU NOV 03 2005

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW
CSV 35 ENE MEM 30 SW RUE 25 SSE GMJ 20 SW SZL 40 WSW VPZ 20 N TOL 25
SE MFD 35 SW HTS 30 NNW CSV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE ROC 40 E BGM
20 E ABE 40 SW DCA 55 N HKY 50 ENE RMG 35 ENE 0A8 30 NW MEI 35 NNE
MLU DEQ 15 S TUL 15 W OJC 10 SW OLU 20 SW FSD 25 NNW MKT LSE 20 SSE
LNR 15 SE RAC 30 NE GRR 15 E BAX.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS
VALLEY THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS...

...SYNOPSIS...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE U.S. WILL SHIFT EWD
THROUGH SATURDAY. SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER TROUGH. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST FOR DAY 2 IS CURRENTLY
OVER THE NERN PACIFIC. THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY SEWD INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...REACHING THE OH VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS TRENDING TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH IS MORE
AMPLIFIED THAN THE NAM. THE GFS SUGGESTS AN EVOLVING UPPER JET
STRUCTURE FAVORABLE FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS
IT LIFTS NEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT. AS SURFACE LOW LIFTS
NEWD...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD THROUGH THE MID/LOWER MS
VALLEY DURING THE EVENING AND INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.

...LOWER-MID MS VALLEY THROUGH PARTS OF THE TN AND OH VALLEYS...

LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS OVER THE NRN GULF. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN SLY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH FAVORABLE
TRAJECTORIES FOR PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR TO ADVECT NWD THROUGH
THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY AS WELL AS THE TN AND OH VALLEYS.
DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 ARE EXPECTED AS FAR N AS THE OH VALLEY BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH
COOLING MID LEVEL PROFILES AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND EWD ADVECTION OF THE
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON MLCAPE SHOULD RANGE
FROM NEAR 1500 J/KG OVER THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY TO AOB 1000 J/KG
OVER WRN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BE
CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED STORMS MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...LIFT WILL
INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY
AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND THE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MS VALLEY REGION...BUT EVOLUTION INTO LINES IS ALSO PROBABLE.
INITIAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE OVER THE MS VALLEY...SPREADING NEWD
INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. AN UPGRADE TO HIGHER
PROBABILITIES AND POSSIBLY A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE AREA MAY BE
WARRANTED IN LATER OUTLOOKS ONCE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE TIMING
AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH HAVE BEEN MITIGATED.

..DIAL.. 11/04/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.