[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 030544
SWODY2
SPC AC 030543

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 PM CST WED NOV 02 2005

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE BLI 35 WNW DLS
60 SE EUG 40 WSW CEC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE DTW ERI DUJ
LBE HTS DYR ARG 40 SSW TBN JEF SPI 20 SSE DTW.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...NOW
DEVELOPING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE CENTRAL STATES...WILL
BEGIN SHIFTING EASTWARD DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...SHORT WAVE RIDGE MAY BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC COAST
STATES...WITH DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING A BIT IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES...IN RESPONSE TO REMNANTS OF INTENSE PACIFIC JET DIGGING
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

SIGNIFICANT EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH...PROGGED TO LIFT EAST OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY TODAY...IS FORECAST INTO UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION BY 12Z FRIDAY...BEFORE WEAKENING/BECOMING SHEARED AS IT
ACCELERATES INTO CONFLUENT REGIME ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. 
PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE...AND
STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET TO THE NORTHWEST OF RETREATING SOUTHEAST STATES
SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN VEERED ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  WITH THIS FEATURE INLAND OF COASTAL
AREAS...MODIFYING BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE
SLOW TO ADVECT INLAND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. 
HOWEVER...FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY...UPSTREAM
AMPLIFICATION IN UPPER FLOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT MORE RAPID
RETURN FLOW OF MODIFYING GULF BOUNDARY LAYER.

...MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY...
LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTENING WITH RETURN FLOW APPEARS LIKELY TO BE
LIMITED...BUT IT MAY BECOME MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT BECOMES ENHANCED LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF COLD FRONT TOWARD THE OHIO
RIVER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CAPE WILL BE WEAK FOR PARCELS
REACHING LEVELS OF FREE CONVECTION ABOVE SURFACE INVERSION LAYER. 
THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...BUT SCATTERED WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...
A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING UPPER JET
CORE IS PROGGED ACROSS COASTAL AREAS AND THE CASCADES BY EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
MODERATELY STRONG MOIST ONSHORE FLOW BENEATH COLD MID-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT /500 MB TEMPS AOB -30C/...AND DESTABILIZATION IS
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.  THERMODYNAMIC/SHEAR
PROFILES COULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SMALL HAIL IN STRONGER
CELLS...WHICH MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING...BEFORE WEAKENING AS
ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS AND MID-LEVELS BEGIN TO WARM.

..KERR.. 11/03/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.