[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 020613
SWODY2
SPC AC 020612

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1212 AM CST WED NOV 02 2005

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE BLI 25 NE PDX
50 SSE EUG 15 WSW 4BK 35 WSW CEC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SNY 10 NNW CDR 55 NW
VTN 40 NW ONL OFK LNK 35 N CNK 30 SE MCK 40 SSE IML SNY.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP INTO THE
WESTERN STATES IN ASSOCIATION WITH INLAND PROGRESSION OF AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS.  MODELS SUGGEST TROUGHING
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AND EXPAND EASTWARD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S...AS INTENSE HIGH LEVEL JET STREAK
/NOW TOPPING CENTRAL PACIFIC RIDGE/ DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST.

LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ALREADY PROGRESSING THROUGH CREST OF
BROADER SCALE RIDGE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES.  IMPULSE WILL
WEAKEN AND BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED AS IT ACCELERATES INTO
CONFLUENT REGIME OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...SOUTH OF
EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH...BY 12Z THURSDAY.  IN ITS WAKE...SURFACE 
COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND
BECOME FOCUS FOR SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AS NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES.  UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ARE PROGGED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPI VALLEY BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT SURGING DEEPER INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

DESPITE FORCING/SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH POLAR WESTERLIES BECOMING
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SURFACE RIDGE
NOW DEVELOPING INTO THE GULF STATES /IN WAKE OF WEAKENING SOUTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE/ IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. 
THIS WILL OCCUR AS UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS IN WEAK BELT OF
SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. THUS...
WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN RAPIDLY MODIFYING OVER 
THE GULF OF MEXICO...A SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE
CENTRAL STATES IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR.  THIS WILL PRECLUDE RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN AT A RELATIVE MINIMUM.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BECOME VERY STEEP BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON NEAR INTERSECTION OF SURFACE COLD FRONT AND LEE SURFACE
TROUGH OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA.  DESPITE VERY LIMITED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...LARGE-SCALE FORCING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED HIGH-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS...BEFORE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF TO THE EAST
AND COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTHWARD EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MID/HIGH-
LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO SWEEP INLAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  SUBSEQUENT
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK TO MODERATE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND STRONG
MID-LEVEL COOLING SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS AND THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES.

..KERR.. 11/02/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.