[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 010615
SWODY2
SPC AC 010613

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 AM CST TUE NOV 01 2005

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW FMY 50 E DAB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BNO SMN BZN 10 NNW
COD RIW 35 SSW BPI 10 ENE U31 15 ENE RBL 30 WSW LMT BNO.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

MODELS INDICATE THAT A STRONG HIGH LEVEL JET...NOW NOSING ACROSS THE
ALEUTIANS...WILL CONTINUE TO DIG TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC
COAST...CONTRIBUTING TO THE EVOLUTION OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH THE ROCKIES BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.  A TROUGH IS ALREADY EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DIGGING
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.  EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES COMPRISING
THIS FEATURE ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHWESTERN STATES LATE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DOWNSTREAM...LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION...AS SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING
FARTHER DOWNSTREAM LIFTS OUT OF THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.

IN THE WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM...DEVELOPMENTS ACROSS THE GULF/SOUTH
ATLANTIC COAST STATES REMAIN MORE UNCERTAIN.  BOTH LATEST GFS AND
NAM SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE EMANATING FROM THE
CLOSED LOW/TROUGH...NOW EVOLVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION...WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...LIKELY ADVANCING INTO AND ACROSS
SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY ON TRAIL OF NORTH
STREAM TROUGH. TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO/FLORIDA PENINSULA...BUT IMPULSE LIFTING OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO/WESTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY MAY BE OF GREATER
SIGNIFICANCE WITH REGARD TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.

...FLORIDA PENINSULA...
MODELS SUGGEST WEAK FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE WILL BE EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY...WITH SURFACE FRONT ALREADY BEGINNING TO ADVANCE BACK
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA.  ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH MAIN TROUGH ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A CONTINUING RISK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY MID DAY
WEDNESDAY.  IT NOW APPEARS ANY POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED OR MINOR
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WILL BE CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE  UPPER KEYS
AND SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS.  HOWEVER...GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED
UNCERTAINTIES...AND APPARENT LACK OF STRONGER SURFACE LOW...
PROBABILITIES SEEM TOO LOW TO OUTLOOK RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AT THE
PRESENT TIME.

...NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH COULD BECOME A
FOCUS FOR DESTABILIZATION WEDNESDAY.  ALTHOUGH LEAD SHORT WAVE
TROUGH LIKELY WILL ALREADY BE ACCELERATING NORTHEAST OF REGION EARLY
IN THE DAY...UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE INLAND
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST INTO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN
CASCADES/NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

..KERR.. 11/01/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.