[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 121737
SWODY2
SPC AC 121736

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 SW
P07 25 WNW MAF 35 ESE PVW 65 WSW GAG 20 WSW HUT 35 E STJ 40 SW RFD
15 SSE MKG 30 N MBS 100 ENE OSC ...CONT... 25 SSW BUF 25 NNW LBE 25
WNW HTS 20 SW EVV 30 NNE POF 30 NNE TXK 45 NE ACT 45 NNW SAT 40 NW
LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE 63S 55 SSW LWS
65 WNW WMC 15 WSW RNO 30 WNW SAC 35 ESE CEC 20 ESE ONP 45 W BLI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW MRF 45 ESE GDP
50 SE CVS 20 ENE CVS 40 ESE LVS 15 SW TAD 55 S GLD 25 WSW OMA 35 SW
ESC 20 ENE ANJ ...CONT... 25 NE EFK 15 SW BAF 25 SSW ABE 40 N SHD 45
S PSK 20 N FAY 35 W ILM 40 NE CHS 40 N SAV 50 E MCN 30 NNW MCN 20
WNW RMG 15 NNW HSV 30 S UOX 15 WSW ELD 20 SSE SAT LRD.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS DAY 1 AS IT BECOMES AN
OPEN WAVE PHASING WITH NRN STREAM TROUGH.  THIS MAIN TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE UPPER/MID MS VALLEY TO THE ARKLATEX AS
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY/SPEED MAX DIG SEWD TOWARD THE UPPER MS
VALLEY.

AT THE SURFACE...A LOW IS PROGGED TO BE OVER IA AT 12Z FRIDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD INTO NWRN OK TO SERN NM...WITH A DRY LINE
THEN EXTENDING SWD TO THE TX BIG BEND REGION.  EAST OF THE IA
SURFACE LOW...A BOUNDARY WILL RETREAT NWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
REGION AS A WARM FRONT...REACHING SRN LOWER MI TO SRN NY BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.  MEANWHILE...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY SEWD AS IT REMAINS NEARLY PARALLEL TO SWLY FLOW ALOFT.  A
STRONGER SURGE IN THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS
BOUNDARY MOVING E/SE AND REACHING A LINE FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TO MID MS VALLEY INTO NRN TX BY 12Z SATURDAY.

...SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...
GIVEN CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY WITH LOCATION OF COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH DAY 1
CONVECTION...AND TIMING OF DAY 2 SRN PLAINS CONVECTIVE INITIATION...
THIS FORECAST WAS TRENDED TOWARD THE NCEP ENSEMBLES/GFS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ALONG AXIS OF A 40-45 KT
SWLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM NWRN TX TO THE SWRN GREAT LAKES AT 12Z
FRIDAY.  MAIN PART OF THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE NEWD INTO IL
TO LOWER MI AND MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH AS A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH
TRACKS FROM MO TO THE SRN GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AS THE WARM FRONT RETREATS
NWD.  A COUPLE WAVES OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK
FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY NEWD TO SRN LOWER MI/NRN OH...AS ONE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS EWD INTO SRN LOWER MI BY 14/00Z...AND A SECOND
LOW INTENSIFIES FROM NERN MO TO NRN IL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS WILL TEND TO FAVOR LINE SEGMENTS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  HOWEVER...
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF ALONG THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOWS.

FARTHER SW ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FRIDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE LLJ TRANSLATES NEWD
AWAY FROM THIS REGION. MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE INITIATION FROM WRN MO SWWD TO WRN OK/NWRN TX/TX
PANHANDLE.  DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES...MODELS TEND TO AGREE THAT
STORMS WILL DEVELOP AS THE TAIL END OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE COLD FRONT AND A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  STORMS MAY
BECOME UNDERCUT BY THE SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT...BUT THE COMBINATION
OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.  ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
THE INTERSECTION OF THE COLD FRONT AND DRY LINE...WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO MIX EWD ACROSS WRN TX DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.  THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SSWLY LLJ ACROSS TX INTO THE OZARKS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WITH HAIL BEING
THE PRIMARY THREAT OVERNIGHT.

..PETERS.. 05/12/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.