[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 120535
SWODY2
SPC AC 120534

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW
BUF 25 NNW LBE 25 WNW HTS 20 SW EVV 30 NNE POF 30 NNE TXK 40 S DAL
45 NNW SAT 40 NW LRD ...CONT... 90 SW P07 25 WNW MAF 20 S CDS 35 NE
GAG 20 WSW HUT 35 E STJ 40 SW RFD 35 S MKG 30 N MBS 100 ENE OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE 63S 55 SSW LWS
65 WNW WMC 15 WSW RNO 30 WNW SAC 35 ESE CEC 20 ESE ONP 45 W BLI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW MRF 45 ESE GDP
50 SE CVS 20 ENE CVS 40 ESE LVS 15 SW TAD 55 S GLD 25 WSW OMA 35 SW
ESC 20 ENE ANJ ...CONT... 25 NE EFK 15 SW BAF 25 SSW ABE 40 N SHD 45
S PSK 20 N FAY 35 W ILM 40 NE CHS 40 N SAV 50 E MCN 30 NNW MCN 20
WNW RMG 15 NNW HSV 30 S UOX 15 WSW ELD 20 SSE SAT LRD.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER OH VLY/CNTRL GRTLKS...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A POSITIVE-TILT OPEN WAVE
TODAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEEPEN FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS A NRN STREAM
IMPULSE DIGS SWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS.  THE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE EWD
INTO THE GRTLKS...MIDWEST AND SRN PLAINS STATES BY EARLY SATURDAY. 
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO STEADILY MOVE
SEWD...PROBABLY REACHING THE CNTRL GRTLKS...OH VLY...N TX LINE BY
FRI EVENING.  MAIN SYNOPTIC LOW WILL TRAVEL ALONG THE FRONT FROM WRN
IL EARLY FRI TO ONTARIO BY FRI EVENING.  THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS.

...SRN PLAINS TO THE GRTLKS/OH VLY...
A DIFFICULT FORECAST GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
LOCATIONS.  THE FOLLOWING SCENARIO WAS TRENDED TOWARD THE NCEP
ENSEMBLES/GFS/ECMWF GIVEN THEIR SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE THE PAST WEEK.

THERE ARE APT TO BE SEVERAL TSTM CLUSTERS ONGOING ALONG THE AXIS OF
A 40-45 KT LLJ EARLY FRI FROM PARTS OF NRN OK NEWD TO LOWER MI. 
MAIN PART OF THE LLJ WILL SHIFT NEWD INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND
UPPER OH VLY/CNTRL GRTLKS DURING THE AFTERNOON.  GIVEN INCREASING
LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD ACROSS THIS REGION...TSTMS
ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND/OR DEVELOP ALONG SRN EDGE OF MORNING
ACTIVITY.  BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD DESTABILIZE RAPIDLY AS FAR N AS
SERN LOWER MI...WITH SURFACE BASED STORM PROBABILITIES INCREASING
THERE BY LATE AFTN.  GIVEN THAT THESE STORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING
ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGEST MID-LEVEL WINDS...TSTMS COULD
BECOME ORGANIZED...EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS...AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  ISOLD
TORNADOES MIGHT ALSO OCCUR...PRIMARILY VCNTY THE SURFACE LOW AND
RETREATING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CNTRL GRTLKS/UPPER OH VLY.

FARTHER SW...GIVEN THAT THE MAIN LLJ WILL PEEL NEWD INTO THE MIDWEST
AND THE THAT THE MODELS DEPICT MUCH WEAKER LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS...CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS MORE UNCERTAIN. 
MOREOVER...LOCATION/INTENSITY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ALSO PLACE
UNKNOWNS INTO THE MIX.

PRIND THAT AS THE TAIL-END OF THE UPPER TROUGH/H5 SPEED MAX MOVES
EWD ATOP A POTENTIALLY STRONGLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...TSTMS WILL
INITIATE ACROSS NRN OK/SERN KS/SWRN MO ALONG THE COLD FRONT.  OTHER
STORMS COULD FORM SWD ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT/DRYLINE FROM SWRN OK
INTO NWRN TX AS CINH IS ERASED.  VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREATS.  STORMS MAY TEND TO GET UNDERCUT EARLY IN THEIR LIFE CYCLES
AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SURGE SEWD DURING THE EVENING.  ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY SEWD INTO THE OZARKS... ERN OK AND N TX...DURING
THE NIGHT.  STRONGER STORMS WILL PROBABLY BACKBUILD INTO THE 20-25
KT SLY LLJ/INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS NWRN TX THROUGH THE NIGHT.  HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK AFTER DARK.

FARTHER S...A CONDITIONAL SLGT RISK WILL EXIST ACROSS W TX ALONG THE
DRYLINE.  GIVEN A STORM...DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ARE SOMEWHAT
WEAK...BUT MAY BE COMPENSATED BY STRONG INSTABILITY AND SUPERCELLS
MAY RESULT.

..RACY.. 05/12/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.