[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 121727
SWODY2
SPC AC 121726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2005

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NE MOT MOT DIK REJ
CDR AIA GLD RSL SLN MHK FNB FOD RST AUW 20 E APN ...CONT... 30 SW
FHU 45 E PHX FLG 40 SE PGA 4BL MTJ ASE 4FC LAR 60 S SHR COD IDA OWY
30 WNW RNO 50 ESE RBL MHS LMT BKE S80 FCA 65 NNW FCA.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR PATTERN THROUGH PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY POSITIVELY
TILTED MEAN RIDGE FROM GREAT BASIN TO HUDSON BAY...AND BY BROAD AND
QUASISTATIONARY DEEP-LAYER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH REMAINS OF HURRICANE
DENNIS.  GIVEN BLOCKING RIDGE UPSTREAM...LOW SHOULD MEANDER SLOWLY
AND ERRATICALLY ACROSS SRN IL/LOWER OH VALLEY AREA.

MEANWHILE....NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY W OF VANCOUVER ISLAND -- IS FCST TO MOVE ASHORE
PACIFIC NW EARLY IN PERIOD...ACROSS NRN ROCKIES DURING
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND OVER SRN SASK/NRN MT BY 14/12Z.  WEAK
COMBINATION OF LEE-SIDE AND FRONTAL-WAVE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED
ALONG SFC COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS MT.  BY END
OF PERIOD...FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM SWRN MB ACROSS WRN ND INTO
N-CENTRAL AND WRN WY.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...NRN ROCKIES...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS SRN/WRN MT
DURING AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN REGION OF NELY/UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL
FLOW.  SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS AND
HAIL DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS IT MOVES NEWD ACROSS REGION.
CONCERNS OVER SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRECLUDE CATEGORICAL
OUTLOOK ATTM...THOUGH AN UPGRADE MAY BE NECESSARY ACROSS SOME PART
OF THIS REGION IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.

AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APCHS...TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENTS ALOFT
AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL ISALLOBARIC FORCING WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR.  SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECT TO BE MOST
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWS BEHIND SFC FRONT BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY NW-W OF SFC CYCLONE WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW IS MOST STRONGLY BACKED.  MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW 0-6 KM AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES 50-55 KT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/SWRN
MT...DIMINISHING WITH EWD EXTENT AND WITH PROXIMITY TO SFC FRONT. 
STRONG HEATING AND VERY DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN BOUNDARY LAYER
DRYING AND LIMITED BUOYANCY OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA DURING
AFTERNOON...THOUGH 60S F DEW POINTS AND MDT BUOYANCY MAY REMAIN OVER
SOME AREAS OF ERN MT/WRN ND...E OF STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR.

...SERN CONUS...
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON DURING PEAK INSOLATION RELATED HEATING...AND AMIDST RICH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED WHERE LIFT IS
ENHANCED ALONG WEAK MESOSCALE CONVERGENCE LINES AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES YET TO BE ESTABLISHED.  SFC DEW POINTS COMMONLY IN 70S F
AND STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER DIABATIC HEATING WILL HELP TO OFFSET
MARGINAL MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 5-6 DEG C/KM...TO YIELD MLCAPES
LOCALLY IN 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE.  ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE WET
MICROBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.  WEAKLY ENHANCED
LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT MORE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH MULTICELLS
OVER NRN AL/NRN GA/ERN TN AREA...RELATIVE TO ELSEWHERE AROUND
CIRCULATION ENVELOPE OF LOW.

..EDWARDS.. 07/12/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.