[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 011734
SWODY2
SPC AC 011733

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW
ELO 15 WSW DLH 30 ESE MSP 35 NNE FOD SUX 35 N VTN 30 N RAP 55 NE 4BQ
10 W GDV 35 E OLF 65 NW ISN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLS 30 SSE AUS 30 WNW
JCT 10 S HOB 65 NE 4CR GUC 45 N PUC 35 S MLD 45 NE SUN 40 WSW MSO 55
NNW FCA ...CONT... 15 NE MQT 35 ESE CWA DBQ 15 ENE P35 50 ENE CNU 60
N HOT 45 N TUP 50 S BNA 20 WNW TRI CHO ACY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SATURDAY AFTN AND SAT NIGHT
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY....

...SYNOPSIS...
MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE U.S.
THRU THE DAY2 PERIOD.  FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
FLOW WILL MOVE OVER QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A SECOND
POSITIVELY TILTED EMBEDDED TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO
SERN ALBERTA DRAGGING THE SRN PORTION ACROSS CENTRAL MT AND THE WRN
DAKOTAS.  COMPARING THE NAM WITH THE GFS AND NAMKF...WILL FAVOR THE
GFS SOLUTION IN THIS FORECAST. NAM LOOKS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS ERN NEB INTO MN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ASSOCIATED
DYNAMICS.  THIS HAS LEAD TO AN ABUNDANCE OF VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS
PARTS OF ERN SD SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ALSO...GFS DOES A
BETTER JOB INDICATING STRENGTH OF THICKNESS RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.  SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM BY 03/00Z IN THE VICINITY
OF THE BLACK HILLS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS SWD THRU
CENTRAL ND...THEN SWWD ACROSS W CENTRAL SD INTO NRN NV.

...NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OF 50-60 KT AND NEAR 100 KT RESPECTIVELY 
IS FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL ID AND W CENTRAL MT BY AFTERNOON.  THIS
PLACES EXIT REGION OVER CENTRAL AND ERN MT BY EVENING WITH DIVERGENT
FLOW FROM EXTREME ERN MT SWD OVER ERN CO.  LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TOMORROW EVENING TO 40-50 KT FROM THE TX
PANHANDLE INTO ERN SD INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION UNDERNEATH
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ENHANCING UVVS EAST AND NORTH OF
SURFACE LOW.  AIR MASS WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AS MUCAPE REACHES BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 J/KG ACROSS THE ERN
DAKOTAS.

THUS...EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON OVER THE BLACK HILLS NWD INTO EXTREME ERN MT/WRN ND...
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS BY EVENING AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND EXIT
REGION MOVES OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS ENHANCING UVVS.  ACTIVITY MAY
BEGIN ELEVATED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER/MID LEVEL CAP...BECOMING
MORE ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS AS ACTIVITY
FORMS INTO AN MCS MOVING OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO MN SATURDAY
NIGHT. MAIN THREATS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.  A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER
CENTRAL AND SERN SD IN AREA OF NWLY FLOW ALOFT JUST W OF LOW LEVEL
JET AXIS WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE IS MOST FAVORABLE.

...GULF COAST STATES...

MOIST...UNSTABLE TROPICAL AIR MASS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE
REGION AS WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW /EVIDENT ON LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/ REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD. 
MODEL FORECASTS INCREASING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS LATER IN THE
PERIOD...BUT MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD STILL REMAIN.  ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GULF STATES WITH WET
MICROBURSTS THE MAIN THREAT.

..MCCARTHY.. 07/01/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.