[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 010602
SWODY2
SPC AC 010601

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 AM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL
BRD 55 ENE ATY 10 WSW HON PIR 81V GCC SHR 3HT LWT GGW 55 N ISN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE MQT GRB DBQ UIN
POF 35 S MKL MSL HSV AVL CHO ACY ...CONT... GLS AUS MAF HOB 65 NE
4CR GUC 45 N PUC MLD 27U 3TH 85 NE 63S.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL/ERN MT TO WRN/NRN MN...

...SYNOPSIS...
GENERAL DEAMPLIFICATION OF NRN STREAM PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THIS
PERIOD...AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER WRN GREAT LAKES CROSSES
QUE AND WEAKENS.  ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED FROM ERN
UPPER MI SWWD ACROSS SRN HIGH PLAINS -- WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MID
ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND AROUND BEGINNING OF PERIOD...SEWD ACROSS SRN
APPALACHIANS/PIEDMONT...STALLING ACROSS PORTIONS GA/AL/MS.  FRONT
SHOULD LIFT NWD ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AS WARM FRONT...BECOMING
DIFFUSE EXCEPT WHERE REINFORCED BY ANY MCS OUTFLOWS FROM LATE DAY-1
CONVECTION.  WLY FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG SFC HEATING/MIXING JUST E OF
ROCKIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SFC DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT FROM WRN SD SSEWD
TO VICINITY KS/CO BORDER.

MEANWHILE...NRN STREAM UPPER LOW -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY OVER QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS OF BC -- IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS
NRN ROCKIES AND CANADIAN HIGH PLAINS AS OPEN-WAVE TROUGH.

...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD/SHIFT EWD ACROSS
MT/DAKOTAS...AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE NWRN TROUGH. AS THIS OCCURS...
LOW LEVEL WAA/MOIST ADVECTION IS FCST TO SPREAD INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF GREAT PLAINS STATES
BY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  OVER NRN PLAINS...SFC THETAE WILL BE
SUPPLEMENTED BY SELY FLOW FROM EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVELY ENRICHED CORN
BELT MOISTURE.

MAIN POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
AND HIGH PLAINS OF MT/NERN WY...AND PERHAPS WRN DAKOTAS.  DEEPLY
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS AND HIGH-BASED TSTMS ARE LIKELY FOR ANY SUCH
ACTIVITY...EXCEPT IN THE EVENT OF CAP BREAKAGE OVER CENTRAL/WRN
DAKOTAS CLOSER TO RICH SFC MOISTURE.  VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS/BOWS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE
POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING. DEEP-LAYER
FLOW FIELDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME OVER
DAKOTAS AND ERN/NRN MN OVERNIGHT...HELPING TO MAINTAIN DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL WITH ANY NOCTURNAL MCS THAT EVOLVES FROM AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.

SEVERAL DAYS OF WLY FLOW COMPONENT ACROSS NRN ROCKIES/PLATEAU REGION
 WILL ADVECT ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ATOP GREAT PLAINS AIR
MASS...RESULTING IN STRONG CAPPING ALONG MOST OF WARM FRONT AND
DRYLINE.  ANY TSTMS FORMING ALONG/E OF DRYLINE OR INVOF WARM FRONT
OVER CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS WILL BE IN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR AND MAY BECOME SUPERCELLS...HOWEVER POTENTIAL IS TOO
CONDITIONAL FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM.

...GULF COAST STATES AND GA/CAROLINAS...
BROAD AREA OF PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN...FROM NC TO E TX -- MAY BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO LOCALIZED PULSE/MULTICELL SEVERE DURING DAY-2.  VERY
WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL WINDS AND WEAK SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE ORGANIZED
SEVERE EVENT...THEREFORE CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK NOT JUSTIFIED THIS
SOON.  HOWEVER...STRONG DIABATIC HEATING AND RICH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT WET MICROBURSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL FROM
MOST VIGOROUS ACTIVITY.

...SRN PLAINS...
GULF COAST REGIME MAY EXTEND NWWD ACROSS PORTIONS N TX OR
OK...EXCEPT WITH SOMEWHAT STRONGER LOW-MIDLEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
RESULTING FROM MORE SLY SFC WINDS AND NW FLOW ALOFT.  PLACEMENT OF
EFFECTIVE FRONTAL ZONE -- SOMEWHERE BETWEEN OZARKS AND TX PANHANDLE
-- DEPENDS STRONGLY ON DEVELOPMENT/POSITIONING OF OUTFLOWS FROM ANY
LATE DAY-1 MCS.  THEREFORE VERY BROAD CORRIDOR IS ASSIGNED MARGINAL
PROBABILITIES ATTM...WHICH MAY INCREASE ONCE MESOSCALE FOCI BECOME
MORE CERTAIN.

..EDWARDS.. 07/01/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.