[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 170558
SWODY2
SPC AC 170557

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 PM CST SUN JAN 16 2005

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z.

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE PATTERN EXPECTED AMIDST PREVAILING WRN
RIDGE/ERN TROUGH REGIME.  ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT ATTM ON
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SERN CA AND SRN NV.  ONE SEGMENT OF
VORTICITY FIELD WITH THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD THEN SWWD
ACROSS NWRN MEX AND DECELERATE AS A WEAK UPPER LOW...WHILE
PROGRESSIVE SEGMENT MOVES ACROSS WRN GULF COAST/MS DELTA REGIONS AS
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH.  DESTABILIZING LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH
MEX PORTION OF TROUGH MAY COMBINE WITH MARGINAL LOW-MIDLEVEL
MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO GENERATE A FEW HIGH BASED TSTMS
DURING AFTERNOON HEATING PERIOD...IN NRN MEX.  SREF GUIDANCE AND
OPERATIONAL SHORT-RANGE MODELS REASONABLY INDICATE SBCAPE WILL
REMAIN LARGELY OR ENTIRELY S OF MEX BORDER ON HIGHER TERRAIN...GIVEN
LACK OF SFC MOISTURE N OF BORDER.  ALTHOUGH A FEW CB MAY MOVE CLOSE
TO U.S. TERRITORY BETWEEN SERN AZ AND TX BIG BEND
REGION...PROBABILITY OF TSTMS APPEARS TOO LOW FOR GEN THUNDER AREA
ATTM.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD ALONG PACIFIC NW
COAST AMIDST PERSISTENT WAA REGIME.  PRIND SUFFICIENTLY DEEP
BUOYANCY TO SUPPORT TSTMS WILL REMAIN LARGELY OFFSHORE.  THOUGH A
LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO MAY HAPPEN NEAR COAST...POTENTIAL APPEARS
TOO LOW FOR CATEGORICAL THUNDER FCST ATTM.

..EDWARDS.. 01/17/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.