[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 160442
SWODY2
SPC AC 160441

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1041 PM CST SAT JAN 15 2005

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z.

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH DAY-2 WILL CONTINUE TO BE
CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH-AMPLITUDE ERN TROUGH...AND SOMEWHAT FLATTER
RIDGE ACROSS WRN NORTH AMERICA THAT WILL BE PENETRATED BY SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES.  MOST PROMINENT OF THOSE SHORTWAVES -- NOW EVIDENT ON
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER COASTAL PACIFIC NW -- WILL AMPLIFY
DURING DAY-2 OVER 4-CORNERS/SRN ROCKIES REGIONS...AFTER IT LEAVES
LONGWAVE RIDGE POSITION.  ASSOCIATED STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES
ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW AND VERY HIGH
BASED CONVECTION...WITH MUCAPES GENERALLY BELOW 100 J/KG.  ALTHOUGH
ROGUE LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...LACK OF RICHER
MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE GEN TSTM RISK.

FARTHER W...STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME EXPECTED OVER COASTAL
PACIFIC NW...AHEAD OF OF NERN PACIFIC TROUGH.  PRIND BUOYANCY SHOULD
BE TOO WEAK OVER LAND FOR GEN THUNDER RISK...THOUGH THUNDER MAY BE
MORE COMMON OFFSHORE.  STABILIZING EFFECTS OF STRONG
CONTINENTAL/POLAR ANTICYCLONE IN LOW LEVELS WILL PRECLUDE THUNDER
POTENTIAL E OF ROCKIES.

..EDWARDS.. 01/16/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.