[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 060712
SWODY2
SPC AC 060711

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 AM CST THU JAN 06 2005

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW HQM 25 E AST 30
ENE OTH 35 NNE 4BK 35 SE CEC 45 SSE EKA 10 WSW UKI 30 NNE SFO 15 SE
SJC 40 NW PRB 20 ESE SMX 10 S OXR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW PSX 40 SW CLL
65 SSW TYR 10 N PBF 35 SSW DYR 25 SSW CKV 30 NNW CSV TYS 20 NNE ATL
25 S AUO 25 S CEW.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
ETA/GFS AGREE THAT THE PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED
AT 34N 133W...WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES BY 12Z FRIDAY AS
IT PHASES WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TO THE HIGH PLAINS BY THE
END OF DAY 1.  ON DAY 2 THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO TRACK ENEWD TOWARD
THE SRN GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION...WITH HEIGHT RISES LIKELY FROM
TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  AT THE SURFACE...MODELS SUGGEST THE
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF THE TX/LA COAST DURING THE DAY
1 PERIOD WILL MOVE INLAND ALONG THE UPPER TX/LA COASTAL AREAS AS A
WARM FRONT.  MEANWHILE...A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER ERN TX/NRN LA FRIDAY MORNING AS WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS
DEVELOP OVER THIS AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE HIGH
PLAINS/SRN ROCKIES MID LEVEL TROUGH.  THIS LOW WILL TRACK NEWD
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TO WV BY 12Z SATURDAY...WHILE THE TRAILING
FRONT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS.

IN THE WEST...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST INLAND
OF MUCH OF THE WEST COAST AS 500 MB TEMPERATURES COOL AND HEIGHTS
FALL WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH DIGGING SWD OFFSHORE OF THE PAC NW AND
NRN CA.

...ERN TX/LOWER MS TO TN VALLEYS...
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF
THE DAY 2 PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN TX TO SRN AR DUE TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER FRONTAL ZONE PER 35-40 KT SSWLY LLJ.  AS THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ENEWD...SSWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE WARM FRONT AND ALONG/N OF SW-NE ORIENTED
FRONT OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  WEAK LAPSE RATES ACROSS MUCH OF
THIS REGION WILL LIMIT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...BUT IT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM LA NEWD ACROSS MS TO ERN TN BY
FRIDAY EVENING.  ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN
ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND THE WARM SECTOR MAY MOVE INLAND TO
SUPPORT SURFACE BASED STORMS...WEAK INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
STRONGER FORCING REMAINING NORTH OF THIS AREA WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE
THREAT.  THUS...SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 5
PERCENT.

..PETERS.. 01/06/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.