[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 231740
SWODY2
SPC AC 231739

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1139 AM CST WED FEB 23 2005

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW SFO 45 SSE UKI
30 ESE UKI 20 NNE SAC 50 S TVL 40 WNW BIH 15 ESE BIH 60 S TPH 35 W
SGU 20 SSE PGA 65 WNW GUP 25 N GNT 25 N 4CR 25 S HOB 20 SE BGS 20
WNW SEP 25 SW TYR 45 N POE 25 SW JAN 25 SE MEI 15 SW SEM 20 NNE MGM
15 NW ATL 45 W CAE ILM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DAB 35 N PIE.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THURSDAY WILL
FEATURE A SLOWLY DEGRADING HIGH OVER LOW BLOCK ENCOMPASSING THE
WEST...A BROAD/DEEP TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST... AND
A MODERATELY FAST AND ACTIVE SRN STREAM FROM MEXICO...ACROSS SRN
TX...TO NRN FL. A DEEP BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH THE
PRIMARILY ZONAL SRN JET STREAM FROM TX EWD ACROSS LA TO GA/FL. LOW
AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE SRN STREAM WILL PROMOTE EPISODES
OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT/ORGANIZATION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. TSTM OUTFLOW COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE HEIGHT
FALLS AND INCREASING WNWLY DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY ACT TO
NUDGE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE NWRN/NRN
GULF...AND SOUTH INTO NRN FL.

...SERN TX TO LA...
NEXT IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES EMANATING FROM THE DEEP SRN STREAM
TROUGH OVER CA/NRN MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT
OVER TX LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. PORTIONS OF THIS NEXT MCS
ARE LIKELY TO BE ELEVATED ATOP COLD AND STABLE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS
FROM CNTRL TX INTO PARTS OF LA. HOWEVER...NEAR SURFACE-BASED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ESEWD TO THE MID/LWR TX GULF COAST DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TWO PERIOD. THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES AND
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING THE PLACEMENT OF THE DEEPER
FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SERN TX. HOWEVER... THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT
IN THE GUIDANCE THAT A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
EXIST IN ADVANCE OF THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. WHILE PORTIONS
OF THE LWR RIO GRANDE VALLEY MAY REMAIN CAPPED TO SURFACE-BASED
STORMS...ACTIVITY GENERATED IN MCS OUTFLOW/FRONTAL SURGE COULD
ORGANIZE AND RESULT IN A WIND/TORNADO HAZARD. FURTHERMORE...ELEVATED
INSTABILITY STREAMING NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY COULD FUEL
STRONG CONVECTION FROM THE UPPER TX COAST TO LA WITH HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES MENTIONED ABOVE...AND
FURTHER COMPLICATIONS TRYING TO ANTICIPATE MCS FORMATION AND
LOCATION...HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES ARE DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF THE TX GULF COAST...AND
PERHAPS PARTS OF SRN LA...MAY BE UPGRADED TO HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN
LATER OUTLOOKS AS OVERALL SCENARIO BECOMES CLEARER.

...SOUTHEAST/NRN FL...
WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY TODAY
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST EARLY ON THURSDAY.
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS IMPULSE SHOULD DETER ADDITIONAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT FROM GA WWD TO THE NRN GULF COAST EARLY IN THE DAY.
HOWEVER...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR HIGHER THETA-E
AIRMASS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER INSTABILITY AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. GIVEN WEAK CAP AND MODEST FLOW ALOFT...ANY STORMS
DEVELOPING COULD ATTAIN GREATER ORGANIZATION AND POSE A THREAT OF
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ANTICIPATED COVERAGE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
WARRANT HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

...AZ...
A FEW LOW-TOPPED TSTMS WITH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH HEATING OF THE
DAY BENEATH REMAINS OF COLD CORE LOW MOVING ACROSS AZ. LOW CAPE AND
LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PRECLUDE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

..CARBIN.. 02/23/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.