[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 230608
SWODY2
SPC AC 230606

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1206 AM CST WED FEB 23 2005

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW OXR DAG 50 WSW
SGU 50 NE FLG 30 WSW GNT 35 W GDP 75 SSW GDP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 55 N SAT 35 NNW
LFT 25 S SEM 10 ESE AUO 45 ENE CHS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE MLB 10 W PIE.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
NO OVERALL CHANGES TO THE UPPER FLOW REGIME EXPECTED ON THURSDAY
WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE EAST AND REX BLOCK IN THE WEST. 
UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EWD WHILE
THE PARENT TROUGH EXPANDS TO THE SOUTH.  AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ERN TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SURGE SWD THROUGH
DEEP S TX.  A WEAK LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER CNTRL GULF...THEN
MOVE NEWD ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS NRN FL OR SRN GA BY THURSDAY NIGHT.


...DEEP S TX...
SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE VCNTY DEEP S TX BY 18Z THURSDAY
BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING SEWD INTO MEXICO/GULF WATERS BY THURSDAY
EVENING.  AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE...BUT LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TSTMS
MIGHT DEVELOP VCNTY THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING.  IF THEY INDEED
FORM...SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 6 KM OF 40-45 KTS WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  BEHIND THE FRONT...
ELEVATED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AS WELL AS SWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO
CARRY SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCES NEWD FROM MEXICO.  THESE STORMS MAY
ALSO CONTAIN HAIL.  GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND
MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/CAP...CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK IS NOT
WARRANTED ATTM...BUT LOW PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM
PREVIOUS OUTLOOKS.

...SERN STATES...
THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE SERN STATES ON THURSDAY WITH GFS A LITTLE FARTHER S. 
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY WHERE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER IS CHARACTERIZED BY 60S DEW POINTS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY BE MARGINAL /6.5 C/KM/...BUT GIVEN
PERSISTENT MASS CONVERGENCE AND WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.  GIVEN WSWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME THROUGH
THE COLUMN...TSTM CLUSTERS COULD BECOME ORGANIZED...BOW AND GIVE
LOCAL WIND DAMAGE.  UNCERTAINTY ON PLACEMENT OF THE
FRONT/INSTABILITY AXIS WILL PRECLUDE A CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK ATTM.

...SWRN STATES...
GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES...TSTMS WILL LIKELY FORM BENEATH THE UPPER
LOW ACROSS THE SWRN STATES THURSDAY.  VERTICAL SHEAR WILL HAVE
RELAXED BY THURSDAY AND TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE LOW TOPPED AND NOT
PARTICULARLY ORGANIZED.  BUT...THE TROPOSPHERE WILL BE COLD AND
SMALL HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY ANY TSTM.

..RACY.. 02/23/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.