[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 220633
SWODY2
SPC AC 220632

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 AM CST TUE FEB 22 2005

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N PBI 20 NNW PIE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE P07 35 SSE ROW
40 NNE ALM 35 W ALM 30 WSW ELP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W PRB 20 S MER 30
ENE MER 20 SSE BIH 55 SSE TPH 50 N P38 40 ENE PUC 15 SW ASE 20 NNW
LHX 35 SW GCK 35 ESE DDC 30 NNE END 40 E OKC 30 SE HOT 15 NNE AUO 30
ESE CHS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID-WEEK UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL FEATURE A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS
THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS WITH A REX BLOCK ACROSS THE WEST. 
UPPER LOW OFF CA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. 
SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCES EJECTING NEWD FROM THE BASE OF THIS LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS MEXICO...THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE SERN STATES
BEFORE WEAKENING.  AT THE SURFACE...PRESSURES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MS VLY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT SWD INTO THE
GULF COASTAL STATES AND TX.

...SRN CA TO SCNTRL AZ...
MAIN PORTION OF THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE LOWER CO
RIVER VLY EARLY WED TO SRN AZ BY AFTERNOON.  A 50-55 KT CYCLONIC JET
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL SKIRT THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT
PLACE MUCH OF SRN AZ IN FAVORABLE EXIT REGION WITH LARGE SCALE
ASCENT INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.  LARGE PORTION OF THE WARM
CONVEYOR WILL PASS EWD...WITH SOME DEGREE OF INSOLATION EXPECTED
ACROSS THE DESERTS.  GIVEN MINUS 25C AT H5 AND MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE...THERMAL BUOYANCY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR TSTMS.  STRONGEST
VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH 8 KM WILL EXIST ACROSS SCNTRL AZ AND IF
HEATING CAN BE REALIZED...SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  ISOLD TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...
PARTICULARLY IN THE FAVORED SCNTRL AZ VLYS WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW CAN
REMAINED BACKED.  WHEN DETAILS OF THE UPPER LOW TIMING AND MAGNITUDE
OF INSTABILITY CAN BE RESOLVED IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS...A SLGT RISK MAY
BE WARRANTED.

TO THE WEST...COLD CORE ALOFT AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR LOW-TOPPED TSTMS THAT MAY YIELD HAIL ACROSS SRN CA.

...SW/SCNTRL TX...
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS WCNTRL TX ON TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO
POSSIBLY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S BY EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS
NRN/ERN TX.  COLD POOL GENERATION WILL LIKELY DRIVE A COMPOSITE
FRONT SWD INTO SW/SCNTRL TX BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  DETAILS ARE
UNCERTAIN ATTM...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY
AXIS WILL SHIFT TO SW/SCNTRL TX.  DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF
SUBTROPICAL CLOUD DEBRIS...AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE VCNTY
BOUNDARIES/FRONT AND TSTMS COULD DEVELOP BY MID-AFTERNOON.  30-40
KTS OF MIDLEVEL FLOW WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  CINH WILL BE HARD TO ERASE FARTHER S
ACROSS DEEP S TX WHERE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL EXIST.

...ERN GULF COAST...
IT APPEARS THAT A NARROW RIBBON OF INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ALONG/S OF
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ERN GULF COASTAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.  PERSISTENT SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MODEST
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  KINEMATIC
FLOW REGIME WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ANY TSTM THAT DEVELOPS TO ORGANIZE
INTO LEWPS/SMALL-SCALE BOWS.  QUESTIONS REMAIN ON MAGNITUDE OF UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT GIVEN THE FLAT H5 FLOW AND WILL PRECLUDE A SLGT RISK
ATTM.

..RACY.. 02/22/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.