[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 050550
SWODY2
SPC AC 050548

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CST FRI FEB 04 2005

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PSX 45 SSE CLL GGG
FSM UMN VIH 35 SSW BLV 10 SE CGI 10 SSE DYR 15 SW HEZ 30 WSW 7R4.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N BLI 50 ENE SEA
YKM 45 SSW BOI SLC VEL GJT 10 SSE U17 P38 15 W LOL MFR 25 NNW 4BK.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK DIGGING OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOUTHERN BRANCH
CLOSED LOW WILL FINALLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE BAJA VICINITY.  REMNANTS
OF MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION ARE PROGGED INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
BY 12Z SUNDAY. NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION AND SHEARING OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY 2 FORECAST PERIOD...AS ANOTHER
NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS FROM NEAR THE NORTH CENTRAL
U.S. CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH THE EASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES.

MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG TOWARD
BASE OF SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH...ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
INTO THE GREAT BASIN.  AS BELT OF STRONGER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE INTENSIFYING HIGH-LEVEL JET ALONG AN
AXIS FROM THE TEXAS BIG BEND INTO THE ARKLATEX BY 12Z MONDAY
MORNING.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO FOUR CORNERS...
DESPITE LINGERING COLD POCKET ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH
TROUGH...LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY.  PRIMARY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL NOW APPEARS TO REMAIN IN
ASSOCIATION WITH MID-LEVEL COOLING/LIFT IN EXIT REGIN OF DIGGING
CYCLONIC JET.  THIS MAY REMAIN CONFINED TO  AREAS ALONG/WEST OF THE
CASCADES THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.  AS FORCING DEVELOPS
SOUTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...BUT COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY TO BE WIDELY
SCATTERED AT BEST.

...WESTERN GULF COAST INTO MID MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...
RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS EAST TEXAS BY
EARLY SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SURFACE RIDGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND GULF COAST WEAKENS.  BY LATE
SUNDAY EVENING...MODELS SUGGEST TONGUE OF LOWER/MID 50S DEW POINTS 
AS FAR NORTH AS THE OZARK PLATEAU...JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SURGING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND FORCING ALONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
LIKELY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING RAINFALL FROM THE TEXAS GULF
COAST INTO THE OZARKS. HOWEVER...NEAR SATURATED MID-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES...FROM PRIOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING
OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL MOIST PLUME...WILL ONLY
SUPPORT VERY WEAK CAPE.  EVEN RISK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS
LOW UNTIL VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...WHEN UPPER FORCING
WITH HIGH-LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHENING.

..KERR.. 02/05/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.