[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 040551
SWODY2
SPC AC 040550

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CST THU FEB 03 2005

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW FHU TUS 10 SE
INW DRO ALS 40 W RTN 25 W LVS 4CR ALM GDP FST 20 SE P07.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

STABLY STRATIFIED THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE
U.S...AND MODELS INDICATE LITTLE MODIFICATION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

...SOUTHERN PLATEAU INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS...
ONLY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION TO CLOSED LOW...NOW WEST OF BAJA...IS
PROGGED THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.  MODELS ARE
SIMILAR IN SUGGESTING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WILL REACH SONORA
BY 12Z SATURDAY...BEFORE WEAKENING AND RAPIDLY ACCELERATING
NORTHEASTWARD AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE RIVER
...INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY 12Z SUNDAY.  THIS WILL OCCUR AS
VIGOROUS NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK DIGS OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...INTO AREAS OFF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PACIFIC
COAST.

AHEAD OF SOUTHERN SYSTEM...MID/HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE LOWER LATITUDE PACIFIC...THROUGH THE
MEXICAN PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.  LOWER-LEVELS...HOWEVER...ARE INITIALLY DRY/POTENTIALLY
COLD...WITH SURFACE RIDGING PROGGED TO HOLD FIRM ACROSS THE LOWER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY/WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO/WESTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS
THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.  THUS...ANY MOISTENING NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL LIKELY BE DUE TO EVAPORATION FROM PRECIPITATION ALOFT...AND
THIS PROCESS IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN STABLE STRATIFICATION AND
PRECLUDE ANY APPRECIABLE RISK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

A LOW RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS DOES APPEAR TO EXIST SATURDAY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA/WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO...WHERE SOME HEATING MAY OCCUR BENEATH MID-LEVEL THERMAL
TROUGH.  STRONGER SURFACE HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE MEXICAN PLATEAU...POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHERN
CHIHUAHUA...WHERE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT SPREADS TOWARD FAR
WEST/SOUTHWEST TEXAS SATURDAY EVENING.

LOW-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST AREA SHOULD FINALLY
WEAKEN AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT.  THOUGH A SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW OFF
THE WESTERN GULF INTO TEXAS WILL OCCUR...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY
UNTIL STRONGER UPPER FORCING HAS LIFTED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. 
MID-LEVEL WARMING IN THE WAKE OF UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD CAP RETURNING
MOISTURE.

..KERR.. 02/04/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.