[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 290528
SWODY2
SPC AC 290527

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 PM CST WED DEC 28 2005

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW PIB 25 WSW GLH
55 SSW JBR 35 SSW LOZ 20 WSW TRI GSP 50 SSE AHN 25 SSE SEM 35 WNW
PIB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW UIL 25 SE HQM
25 ENE SLE 10 NE MFR 30 ENE ACV 80 SSW EKA.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

ACTIVE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TWO PERIOD
WITH PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WHICH
WILL TRANSLATE EWD FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND SWD
THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS BY SATURDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE IN THE
W...NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC NW
COAST.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLAINS
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY EWD FROM THE MID MO VALLEY INTO THE
SRN GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE MS VALLEY...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER OH
VALLEY SWWD INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST BY 31/12Z.

...LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF COAST INTO TN VALLEY...

LATEST SHORT TERM-MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING
THAT STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STEEPEST MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD
ACROSS THE MID MS/OH AND TN VALLEY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  DESPITE RETURNING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF
SYSTEM COLD FRONT...THESE DATA INDICATE THAT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
QUITE LIMITED OWING TO POOR LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

HOWEVER...GIVEN CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS OVER THE WRN GULF OF
MEXICO E AND SE OF BRO...IT APPEARS THAT WRN EXTENSION OF COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE GULF HAS STALLED WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE
LOW/MID 60S.  THEREFORE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THIS MODEL
GUIDANCE MAY BE UNDERESTIMATING THE QUALITY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO RETURN NEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF
COAST STATES.

CURRENTLY...ONLY A GENERAL THUNDER AREA HAS BEEN INCLUDED OWING TO
RELATIVELY STRONG AND PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WITHIN SYSTEM WARM CONVEYOR BELT WHICH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SUBSEQUENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT. 
HOWEVER...SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT
OUTLOOKS SHOULD IT BECOME APPARENT THAT MORE INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

...PACIFIC NW COAST...

INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE COAST MAY
SUPPORT WEAK INSTABILITY AND ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

..MEAD.. 12/29/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM