[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 281735
SWODY2
SPC AC 281734

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 AM CST WED DEC 28 2005

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE CHS 45 S FAY 25
E RZZ 25 SE DOV NEL 15 SW BDR 10 ENE BDL 30 SSW CON 15 SW PWM 30 SSW
BGR 45 NNW EPM.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WAVE TRAIN WILL CONTINUE COAST-TO-COAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS ROBUST SHORT WAVE TROUGHS SPREAD INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC
AND PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE CONUS. THE LEADING IMPULSE DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WAS SPINNING OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS CYCLONE WILL
MAKE STEADY NEWD PROGRESS FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES TO THE COAST OF
MAINE THURSDAY. AS PRIMARY SURFACE LOW UNDERGOES OCCLUSION ACROSS
WRN NY...SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR NEAR DELMARVA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE SECONDARY LOW WILL THEN TRACK ALONG COASTAL
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM NJ SHORE TO THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AS TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES EAST INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC.

THE NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE WAS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WEST. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
SPREAD EAST FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE
PERIOD AS PRIMARY LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW TAKES FORM OVER THE DAKOTAS.
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SURGE OUT OF THE HIGH
PLAINS AND SEWD ACROSS THE SCNTRL AND SRN PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

LASTLY...AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE FROM HEAVY PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
WEST COAST...THE NEXT STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
INFLUENCE COASTAL AREAS FROM NRN CA TO WA BY FRIDAY MORNING.

...EAST COAST...
DEEP-LAYER BAROCLINIC BAND WITHIN ERN QUADRANT OF POTENT UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD MOVE STEADILY OFFSHORE FROM VA TO SC THROUGH NOON.
RESIDUAL INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS ZONE OF STRONG ASCENT COULD FUEL
SCATTERED TSTMS BEFORE SUBSIDENCE AND COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS SPREADS
ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY.

MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS COINCIDENT WITH SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS NEAR DELMARVA. THIS
PROCESS WILL ENHANCE ASCENT ACROSS COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM LONG
ISLAND TO SERN NEW ENGLAND. LIFT WILL FURTHER INTENSIFY ACROSS THESE
AREAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS NNEWD. UNUSUALLY
WARM/MOIST AIR MASS BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE LARGER SCALE SYSTEM
SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY FROM ERN NJ
NEWD TO COASTAL MAINE. SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE
COASTAL FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW.

...ROCKIES...
ISOLATED TSTMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE NEXT STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CO/WY MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN
ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED CONVECTION. ANTICIPATED LIGHTNING COVERAGE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT AN OUTLOOK AREA AT THIS TIME.

..CARBIN.. 12/28/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM