[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 211650
SWODY2
SPC AC 211649

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1049 AM CST WED DEC 21 2005

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE UIL 20 W OLM
PDX 40 NNW MFR RBL 35 SW SFO.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE AND TEMPORARILY DEAMPLIFYING UPPER AIR PATTERN IS FCST
DURING PERIOD. GENERALLY MOIST WLY-SWLY FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED/LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS WILL CHARACTERIZE W COAST
REGIME.  UPPER TROUGH -- WITH EMBEDDED LOW INITIALLY EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INVOF 45N137W -- IS EXPECTED TO OPEN AND
EJECT NEWD INTO WA/BC LATE DAY-1.  UPSTREAM TROUGH NEAR 150W  IS
FCST TO MOVE INLAND WA/ORE DURING DAY-2 PERIOD.  THIS FEATURE IS
MOST AMPLIFIED IN 12Z OPERATIONAL SPECTRAL MODEL AND 09Z SPECTRAL
MEMBERS OF SREFX COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS...AND THAT SOLUTION IS
PREFERRED BASED ON SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND EVOLUTION OF
DOWNSTREAM PATTERN.

FARTHER E...SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER E TX AND LA WILL TURN
EWD AND MOVE OFF SERN COAST INTO ATLANTIC.  MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM
TROUGH NOW OVER PACIFIC COAST STATES WILL PENETRATE MEAN WRN CONUS
RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. STRONG SFC RIDGING
ACROSS GULF COAST STATES AND ADJACENT NRN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
PRECLUDE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN AND THEREFORE TSTM POTENTIAL
OVER CONUS E OF ROCKIES.

...PACIFIC COAST STATES...
TRANSIENT/INTERMITTENT THUNDER EPISODES POSSIBLE FROM COASTAL RANGES
WWD INTO ADJACENT PACIFIC AMIDST MARGINAL BUOYANCY OF 300 J/KG OR
LESS...AND WEAK CINH.  TSTM PROBABILITIES MAY PEAK FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...IN ZONE OF
WEAK LARGE SCALE DPVA THAT WILL PRECEDE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

..EDWARDS.. 12/21/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM