[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 120601
SWODY2
SPC AC 120600

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CST MON DEC 12 2005

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW MRF 30 ESE FST
35 SSW ABI 25 WNW ADM 25 WNW FYV 25 ENE RUE 40 N ELD 35 WSW IER 45
ESE UTS 30 NW LBX 15 NE NIR 45 NW LRD.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SUBTROPICAL CUT-OFF LOW SITUATED OFF SRN CA IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP
AND EJECT EWD INTO THE GRT BASIN BY LATE MON AS A STRONG NPAC
JET/SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. DESPITE
PHASING OF THE SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR JETS ON TUE...THE SRN IMPULSE
WILL MAINTAIN IDENTITY WITH ITS ASSOCIATED 80+KT H5 JET TRANSLATING
ACROSS TX BY 12Z WED.  

...CNTRL/ERN TX...
SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE OVERALL WEAKENING OF
THE REX BLOCK AND SUBSEQUENT ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE INTO
THE SRN PLAINS TUE NIGHT.  MUCH OF TUE WILL SEE LARGE SCALE RIDGING
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.  INCREASING
SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSPORT MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE NWD INTO
CNTRL/ERN TX BENEATH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...BUT SURFACE BASED
PARCELS WILL BE CAPPED.  AS THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH SPREADS EWD AND THE SLY LLJ RESPONDS...GRADUAL MOISTENING
OF THE COLUMN WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME DESTABILIZATION ALOFT LATE TUE
NIGHT ACROSS CNTRL/ERN TX.  ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT A WIDESPREAD
REGION OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP FROM ERN OK/AR SWD INTO CNTRL TX
AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED.  EMBEDDED STRONGER TSTMS ARE
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY OVER CNTRL/ERN TX CLOSER TO THE STEEPER
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ISOLD STORMS MAY BRIEFLY PULSE TO NEAR
SEVERE LEVELS WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

..RACY.. 12/12/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM