[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 071724
SWODY2
SPC AC 071723

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 AM CST WED DEC 07 2005

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE LCH JAN TCL
AND AVC 20 WSW ORF 60 E ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE MIA 30 N MIA
25 S AGR 55 SSW SRQ.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

COMPLEX SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH BELTS OF POLAR WESTERLIES AND SUBTROPICAL STREAM
REMAINING GENERALLY CONFLUENT EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND MEXICAN
PLATEAU.  IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...AND
PERHAPS ANOTHER DIGGING JET ACROSS NORTHERN MANITOBA/ONTARIO...
MODELS SUGGEST CENTRAL PLAINS CLOSED LOW WILL BE FORCED EASTWARD. 
THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED AS IT ACCELERATES
THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY BY
12Z FRIDAY.

FARTHER UPSTREAM...SHORT WAVE DIGGING ALONG THE NORTHERN PACIFIC
COAST IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. SYSTEM WILL BECOME CUT-OFF FROM MAIN BELT OF POLAR
WESTERLIES...CRESTING NORTHEAST PACIFIC RIDGE INTO THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES...BUT SOME PHASING WITH SUBTROPICAL STREAM MAY OCCUR LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...DOWNSTREAM IMPULSE IN SUBTROPICAL
STREAM IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MEXICAN
PLATEAU...TOWARD THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

...EASTERN STATES...
STRONG LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL OVERSPREAD
MOST AREAS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS EASTWARD TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER...WITH THE GULF
OF MEXICO STILL MODIFYING AND MOISTURE LIMITED DUE TO RECENT COLD
INTRUSIONS...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
MINIMAL.

MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON LEADING EDGE
OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE RETURN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME SUFFICIENTLY STEEP FOR WEAK CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY IN A LAYER...BASED AROUND 700 MB...WITH FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE FOR LIGHTNING. COVERAGE/PROBABILITIES OF
STORMS MAY BE LOWER END...BUT WILL SPREAD FROM THE EASTERN GULF
STATES THURSDAY INTO THE SOUTHERN/MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY WARM/WARMING MID-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT PERHAPS NEAR FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS.  WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER BASED DESTABILIZATION SEEMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF WEAK
SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING TOWARD THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION...AND
POSSIBLY ALONG WARM FRONT/CONFLUENT BAND DEVELOPING NEAR EAST
CENTRAL COASTAL AREAS. IF THIS OCCURS...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL WITH RISK OF A TORNADO OR
DAMAGING WIND GUST.  THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD END THURSDAY EVENING... 
WITH RISK FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTION DEVELOPING OFF SOUTH ATLANTIC
COASTAL AREAS.

...WESTERN/CENTRAL STATES...
DRY/COOL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PRECLUDE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

..KERR.. 12/07/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM