[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 010607
SWODY2
SPC AC 010606

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1206 AM CST THU DEC 01 2005

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW CLM 25 ESE CLM
SLE 50 SE OTH 50 WNW 4BK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BIH TPH 55 ESE ELY
U28 CEZ 40 WNW GUP IGM NID 65 NW NID BIH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE CRP UTS MLU
MEI GZH 25 NE CEW 45 WSW AAF.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

POLAR LOW IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA...WITH A SIGNIFICANT
IMPULSE...EMANATING FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...NOW ACCELERATING
WELL TO ITS SOUTH/EAST.  REINFORCING COLD INTRUSION INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL STATES IS ONGOING WITH LATTER FEATURE...WHICH IS PROGGED
RAPIDLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT...SUPPORTING INITIATION OF CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE NORTH
ATLANTIC COAST.  DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE
IS PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS MAINE INTO QUEBEC...WHERE NEW MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION WILL BECOME MORE PROMINENT.

MODELS SUGGEST UPSTREAM LOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA...BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE EMANATING FROM THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC WILL SUPPORT YET ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD SURGE IN THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES.  MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT THIS SHORT WAVE...AND
UPSTREAM IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONGER BELTS OF WESTERLIES OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC...WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES DURING
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.

...EAST OF THE ROCKIES...
WITH COLD AIR ENTRENCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S...
AND LEE CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL.  LOW-LEVEL
FLOW TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF DEVELOPING LOW WILL MAINTAIN A SIGNIFICANT
WESTERLY COMPONENT...BUT A LIMITED RETURN FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE
SEEMS LIKELY INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.  A CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL ADVECT EASTWARD OUT OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS....AND RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
DOWNSTREAM OF DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE FURTHER
INHIBITION.  THUS...PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LOW UNTIL
AT LEAST THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...MORE LIKELY AFTER 12Z
SATURDAY.

...SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...
MOISTENING ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHERN BRANCH
OF POLAR WESTERLIES IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  AS UPPER
TROUGH GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES...MID-LEVEL COOLING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
INCREASING FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
BY FRIDAY EVENING.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
WEAK TO MODERATE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE...WITH 
COLD CORE OF UPPER TROUGH SLOW TO MIGRATE INLAND.  THIS WILL
MAINTAIN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION...INCLUDING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG COASTAL AREAS.

..KERR.. 12/01/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM