[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 191714
SWODY2
SPC AC 191713

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW
MSS 25 N CXY 25 NNW SSU 25 S BWG 25 WSW DYR 15 SW FSM 30 E CSM 30 S
DHT 20 W CAO 20 SSW LHX 25 N LAA 45 ENE DDC 10 S EMP 30 WSW PIA 15
ENE ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW RAL 25 NW BFL
40 NNE FAT 55 ESE TVL 30 N TPH 45 E TPH 45 NW P38 55 SE ELY 20 S EVW
45 SE RWL 55 NW CDR 30 NNW BUB 30 SE YKN 25 NW OTG 30 W AXN 15 SSW
TVF 55 W RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE CRP 25 NNE VCT
35 NW HOU 55 ENE LFK 30 NNE SHV 35 SSE PRX 30 SSW FTW 40 NNE JCT 25
WNW DRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT LAKES
SWWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD
OWING TO STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS ONTARIO
AND THE GREAT LAKES...AND A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE W.  WITHIN THIS
REGIME...A BELT OF RATHER STRONG...CYCLONIC...MID AND HIGH-LEVEL
WINDS WILL DEVELOP FROM THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST EWD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY NRN APPALACHIANS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY EWD ACROSS NERN
ONTARIO...PRIOR TO OCCLUDING LATE IN THE PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...A
SECONDARY SURFACE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TRACK RAPIDLY NEWD FROM ERN
IA TO NEAR LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO BY SATURDAY EVENING...WHILE
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT SURGES SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OH
VALLEY.

...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...

CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ONGOING AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG COLD FRONT OVER
PORTIONS OF SRN WI/IL...PERHAPS SWWD INTO MO.  DIABATIC HEATING
COUPLED WITH MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF
1500-3000 J/KG/ ACROSS INFLOW AIR MASS OVER THE OH VALLEY AND THE
SRN GREAT LAKES.  THIS INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER LOW SHOULD SUPPORT STORM
INTENSIFICATION/DEVELOPMENT EWD ACROSS THE MID/UPPER OH VALLEY AND
SRN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STRONG...DEEP-LAYER WLY SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT LINE SEGMENTS AND
LEWP/BOWING STRUCTURES AS THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE. 
HOWEVER...LOCALLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND RESULTING INCREASE IN
HODOGRAPH CURVATURE FORECAST INVOF MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW SUGGEST AN
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF A FEW
TORNADOES ACROSS SRN LOWER MI/NRN IND AND OH.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT
THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
ASSOCIATED WITH PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.

THOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH WITH THE ONSET OF
DIABATIC COOLING...STRONGLY FORCED STORMS ALONG COLD FRONT MAY POSE
A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS FAR E AS CNTRL NY/PA SATURDAY NIGHT.

...MID MS VALLEY WWD INTO PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...

DESPITE VERTICAL SHEAR DECREASING WSWWD ALONG FRONTAL
ZONE...ANTICIPATED STRONG HEATING AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
DEEPLY-MIXED CBL AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE
STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A SUPERCELL OR TWO
OVER SERN CO/FAR NERN NM/SWRN KS WHERE MORE ELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL
EFFECTIVELY ENHANCE DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR.

..MEAD.. 08/19/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.