[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 190556
SWODY2
SPC AC 190555

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E
LIC GLD EMP FYV FSM OKC 20 ENE CAO LHX 10 E LIC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW
SYR ELM MGW 5I3 10 SW CKV BLV 10 ENE MTO AZO TVC 35 E PLN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 15 WNW PMD BFL 15
NNE FAT 45 SE RBL 35 ENE 4BK 40 ESE SLE RDM 10 SSE LOL TPH MLF EVW
45 N DGW LBF BIE LWD 20 SSE CID LNR 30 NNE VOK 45 WSW HIB 15 NNW INL
...CONT... 10 E GLS LFK 35 N ACT SJT 40 ESE P07.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SATURDAY AFTN AND EVE ACROSS
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS....

MODELS SUGGEST SOME PHASING/INTERACTION OF SPLIT BELTS OF POLAR
WESTERLIES AND BELT OF HIGH-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES WILL OCCUR
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE U.S...FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  BY 12Z
SATURDAY...A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BEGIN DEVELOPING WITHIN LARGE
UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...BEFORE CONTINUING EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF ONTARIO
AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z SUNDAY.  IN RESPONSE TO THIS
SYSTEM...SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
STATES IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN.  HOWEVER...RIDGING WILL AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
ROCKIES...IN WAKE OF LEAD SHORT WAVE...AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER... NOW
DIGGING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.

...OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...
MID-LEVEL NORTHERN BRANCH JET CORE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP EAST OF
UPPER TROUGH AXIS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH STRONGEST HEIGHT
FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH ONTARIO INTO
QUEBEC.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WELL
NORTH OF THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER...NEAR JAMES BAY...WITH MAIN
SURFACE FRONT NOT PROGGED INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT.

BOTH LATEST NAM AND GFS SUGGEST FORCING WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE
SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH...JUST AHEAD AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF MAIN
NORTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE...WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY MID DAY SATURDAY FROM PARTS OF MICHIGAN
INTO INDIANA AND OHIO. MOISTURE RETURN IN WARM SECTOR FROM THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH HEATING...AND CAPE AT LEAST IN EXCESS
OF 2000 J/KG APPEARS LIKELY.  ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF STORMS APPEARS
POSSIBLE...EMBEDDED WITHIN 30+ KT MEAN WESTERLY FLOW REGIME...WHICH
WILL ENHANCE STORM MOTION AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. 
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING.

...SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINING SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND POTENTIALLY
UNSTABLE...MID-LEVEL COOLING ON WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN WAKE OF
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  THERMAL RIDGE AXIS FROM EASTERN
COLORADO THROUGH SOUTHERN KANSAS/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...JUST AHEAD OF
SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE...IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY. 
WHILE THIS MAY OCCUR IN WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT TO THE SOUTH OF
STRONGER WESTERLIES...VERY WARM DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR A
FEW DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS.  SOME HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BEFORE
ACTIVITY WEAKENS SATURDAY EVENING.

..KERR.. 08/19/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.