[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 231729
SWODY2
SPC AC 231728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2005

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE 63S MSO 10 ESE
WEY 10 SSE LND 4FC PUB 45 S LHX EHA CSM ADM TYR 15 S LFK HOU PSX 10
E HDO 20 SE DRT ...CONT... DUG PRC IGM LAS 15 SE TVL MHS 10 SW MFR
PDX 55 ENE BLI.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

STABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION EAST OF
THE ROCKIES...IN WAKE OF SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH
DEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONE CURRENTLY STILL EVOLVING OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION.  CENTER OF THIS CIRCULATION IS PROGGED TO ROTATE
INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WHEN SYSTEM MAY
BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN.

BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC/WESTERN
NORTHERN AMERICA...BUT MODELS INDICATE CENTER OF BROAD SOUTHERN
BRANCH CIRCULATION WILL REFORM FARTHER WEST OF THE PACIFIC COAST. 
SIGNIFICANT JET STREAK CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THROUGH BASE OF THIS
CIRCULATION...AND READILY EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...IS PROGGED
BY MODELS TO MIGRATE INTO THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU LATER
TONIGHT.  MODELS INDICATE THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER
SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD SUNDAY...GRADUALLY BREAKING DOWN
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS
REGION.  THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND RETURN FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE INTO TEXAS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

...LEE OF SRN ROCKIES INTO TEXAS...
MODELS SUGGEST CLOUDINESS/PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION REGIME SHOULD SPREAD EAST OF THE NEW MEXICO HIGH
PLAINS EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY TO ALLOW SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING
BY LATE AFTERNOON.  WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR INTO THIS REGION...ENOUGH MOISTENING IS
EXPECTED FOR MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG. 
NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
APPEAR POSSIBLE.  ENHANCED BY MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES... A STORM OR TWO COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH OR EXCEED SEVERE
LIMITS BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME
DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL TEXAS LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. 
ON LEADING EDGE OF BETTER GULF MOISTURE RETURN...INSTABILITY COULD
BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STORMS WITH HAIL ACROSS PARTS OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY EVENING...POSSIBLY INTO I-35 CORRIDOR OF
CENTRAL TEXAS BY EARLY MONDAY.

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS A BROAD AREA OF THE WEST SUNDAY...GENERALLY BENEATH MID-LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH AXIS...SOUTH/WEST OF DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP FROM
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.

..KERR.. 04/23/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.