[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 230700
SWODY2
SPC AC 230659

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2005

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE FCA 10 ESE LWT
DGW BFF IML HLC SLN 50 SSW EMP 50 SW TUL ADM MWL BWD JCT LRD
...CONT... ELP SVC PRC IGM LAS RNO SVE MFR PDX 55 ENE BLI.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED FOR CATEGORICAL POINTS

...SYNOPSIS...
DAY-2 SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY MAJOR NERN CONUS
CYCLONE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AND LIFT SLOWLY NWD ACROSS ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION.  UPPER RIDGE OVER ROCKIES WILL BE BREACHED EARLY
IN PERIOD BY SRN STREAM JET...ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS CROSSING SRN PACIFIC COAST.  ONE OF THESE TROUGHS -- NOW
EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SW OF CA IN BETWEEN 125W-130W --
IS FCST TO MOVE ONSHORE SRN CA DAY-1 THEN ACROSS ERN GREAT
BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES REGION THIS PERIOD.  OPERATIONAL AND SREF
GUIDANCE IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING
FROM CO TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AFTER 25/00Z...AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT
FALLS ACROSS SRN ROCKIES/SRN PLAINS THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD.

AT SFC...LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED OVER SERN CO/NERN NM
AREA...ATTACHED SFC TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN NM AND FAR W TX. 
POSTFRONTAL SFC HIGH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SEWD FROM CENTRAL PLAINS
ACROSS NRN GULF.

...SRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...
WIDELY SCATTERED AND HIGH-BASED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
AFTERNOON OVER SRN ROCKIES...WITH CONVECTION FARTHER E ON HIGH
PLAINS AND INVOF LEE TROUGH BEING MORE ISOLATED BECAUSE OF CAPPING. 
EXPECT SFC THETAE TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH DAYLIGHT HOURS --
PRIMARILY AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE ADVECTS NWWD FROM CONTINENTAL SFC
HIGH THAT SHOULD SETTLE OVER NRN GULF. THOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON
TIMING/EWD PROGRESSION OF LEE TROUGH DURING DAY...EXPECT AND
DOWNSLOPE/SWLY FLOW INCREASES TO ITS W DURING AFTERNOON.  THESE
PROCESSES WILL RESULT IN WEAK DRYLINE WITH SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 30S
TO LOW 50S TO ITS E BY 25/00Z. ALTHOUGH DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD
LAYERS WILL MAXIMIZE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG DOWNDRAFTS OR HAIL
THAT IS GENERATED TO REACH SFC...BUOYANCY SHOULD BE MARGINAL BECAUSE
OF WEAK MOISTURE.  THEREFORE SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE TOO SMALL TO
WARRANT CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM.

SOMEWHAT FARTHER E AND AFTER DARK...A FEW SMALL BANDS OR CLUSTERS OF
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS.  STRONG
LOW LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME SHOULD RAISE MARGINALLY MOIST
PARCELS TO HIGHLY ELEVATED LFCS IN A FEW AREAS FROM WRN KS TO WRN OK
AND NW TX.  WEAK CAPE WILL MITIGATE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

..EDWARDS.. 04/23/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.