[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 080543
SWODY2
SPC AC 080542

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 AM CDT FRI APR 08 2005

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW
JMS GFK BJI STC MKT OMA 30 NW CNK MCK LBF ANW 9V9 60 SW JMS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW CMX AUW DBQ IRK
SZL 35 NE CNU HUT LBL CAO 10 S LVS ABQ PRC LAS 45 N DRA 15 NE MLF
BYI 45 NW SUN 27U DLN 10 NW WRL 35 SW RAP 10 ESE PHP DIK SDY 70 NNE
OLF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS....

STRONG UPPER JET STREAK IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY EXTENDING
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC.  AS IT NOSES
EASTWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL
BREAK DOWN INTO SERIES OF AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS FROM THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC INTO THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS REGION OF THE U.S.

ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET HAS ALREADY
PROGRESSED INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN. MODELS SUGGEST THIS IMPULSE WILL LIFT INTO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z SATURDAY...AS MORE VIGOROUS
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE DIGS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST INTO
THE GREAT BASIN.  LEAD SYSTEM IS THEN PROGGED TO PIVOT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE
EVENTUALLY EVOLVING INTO A  CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
BY EARLY SUNDAY.  THIS WILL OCCUR AS UPSTREAM SYSTEM ALSO EVOLVES
INTO A CLOSED LOW WHILE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES.

IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN...DEEP SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY SATURDAY.  PRIMARY SURFACE
CYCLONE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL ONLY PROGRESS SLOWLY ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTAS. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS MAY COMMENCE ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONTINUING ACROSS THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE VERY FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN RATHER LIMITED THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.  LACK OF RETURN FLOW FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO/LOWER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY REGION WILL BE PRIMARY MITIGATING FACTOR. 
BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THIS REGION WILL STILL BE IN RECOVERY PROCESS
IN WAKE OF VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH EXITING THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST
REGION.  HOWEVER...MODELS DO SUGGEST LINGERING MOISTURE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT...GIVEN STRONG LIFT/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...TO SUPPORT
SOME SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY. PRIMARY THREAT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... WHERE INHIBITION WILL
BE WEAKEST DUE TO MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.

...NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH/LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS CURVING
ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME FOCUS FOR MAXIMUM
DESTABILIZATION.  DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD EVOLVE THROUGH
THE DAY ALONG THIS AXIS...WITH CAPE OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG EXPECTED BY
PEAK HEATING.

ENHANCED CONVERGENCE NEAR DRY LINE/TROUGH INTERSECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL OR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA MAY PROVIDE STRONGEST FORCING FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH  LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION
ALONG/EAST OF INSTABILITY AXIS LIKELY TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.

LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND ONLY MODERATELY STRONG
SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT SHEAR...BUT THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO HAIL/WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING SEVERE
LIMITS.  SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END FAIRLY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS
SURFACE-BASED STORMS DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT ADDITIONAL
STORMS...PERHAPS WITH SOME HAIL...MAY DEVELOP EASTWARD IN WARM
ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS PARTS OF MINNESOTA/IOWA.

AS STRONG JET STREAK BEGINS TO DEVELOP EAST OF SOUTHERN ROCKIES
CLOSED LOW SATURDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION WILL BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN KANSAS INTO
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.  IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
NORTH/EAST OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW...ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE.  HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FORCING MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME CAP
GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN.

..KERR.. 04/08/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.