[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 011638
SWODY2
SPC AC 011637

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1037 AM CST FRI APR 01 2005

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW
CHS 30 NNW RWI 55 ESE LYH 30 N LYH 50 W MRB PSB IPT ABE ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MSS GFL PVD ACK
...CONT... 25 NNW PIE 15 ENE JAX 30 NW CHS GSO SSU UNI CMH MFD CLE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CAROLINAS TO MID
ATLANTIC STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...
MAJOR UPPER AIR FEATURE FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE DEEP CYCLONE MOVING
EWD ACROSS SRN APPALACHIANS THEN NEWD TOWARD MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 
THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE FROM LOW NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY OVER UPPER MS VALLEY...AFTER IT ABSORBS CIRCULATION NOW
EVIDENT OVER MO/AR OZARKS.  INTENSE SFC CYCLONE -- INITIALLY OVER
WV...SHOULD MOVE TO OR REDEVELOP E OF MOUNTAINS IN VA THEN MOVE NEWD
SLOWLY INTO CENTRAL/ERN PA...WHILE RAPIDLY OCCLUDING.  SFC COLD
FRONT...INITIALLY FROM WRN VA SWD ACROSS ERN SC AND SERN FL...WILL
SWEEP OFFSHORE FL QUICKLY AND MOVE EWD ACROSS TIDEWATER REGION
DURING DAY.  BAROCLINIC GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT MAY BE
DIFFUSED BY PRECEDING PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF REGION.

...TIDEWATER/ERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
STRONG-SEVERE SQUALL LINE MAY BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD...OR
DEVELOPING EARLY IN PERIOD...ACROSS PORTIONS ERN CAROLINAS AND SRN
VA.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVING NEWD THROUGH MORNING WITH PRIMARY
SEVERE MODE BEING WIND DAMAGE. SEVERE POTENTIAL THEN SHOULD
DIMINISH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY MOVES OFFSHORE AND/OR INTO
STABLE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER PORTIONS NEAR-COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC
REGION.  STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ALSO WILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS...EITHER EMBEDDED WITHIN MAIN
CONVECTIVE BAND OR JUST AHEAD OF IT.

BACKED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ESE-NE OF SFC LOW WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL
SHEAR AND HODOGRAPH SIZE...HOWEVER...INITIAL EPISODE OF TSTMS MAY
NOT BE ABLE TO TAKE FULLEST ADVANTAGE OF IT.  ZONAL EXTENT OF
SFC-BASED DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED BY ELY/ONSHORE COMPONENT
OF FLOW OFF RELATIVELY COLD ATLANTIC WATERS.  THEREFORE EXPECT
GREATEST SFC-BASED BUOYANCY AND SEVERE POTENTIAL WHERE SFC FLOW IS
LARGELY SLY...ACROSS ERN SC...ERN NC AND PERHAPS SRN CHESAPEAKE BAY
REGION.  BUOYANCY WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK DEEP-LAYER LAPSE
RATES...OFFSETTING 60S F SFC DEW POINTS TO KEEP MLCAPES LARGELY
UNDER 500 J/KG IN MANY AREAS.  HOWEVER...THIS STILL WILL BE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT SEVERE POTENTIAL GIVEN STRENGTH OF BOTH LINEAR FORCING
AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.  50-60 KT GRADIENT FLOW WILL BE PRESENT JUST
ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF
MOMENTUM THROUGH SHORT DEPTH.  MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
OFFSHORE BY 21Z.

...INTERIOR VA...CENTRAL/WRN MD...CENTRAL PA...
SECONDARY SEVERE THREAT -- FROM CENTRAL PA SWD INTO NRN VA --
SPATIALLY OVERLAPS WITH NWRN PORTION OF INITIAL AREA BUT WOULD
DEVELOP SEVERAL HOURS LATER.  CONDITIONAL RISK EXISTS FOR SEVERE
TSTM DEVELOPMENT MID-LATE AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH LIMITED
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND STRONG COOLING ALOFT.  ALTHOUGH SFC
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE RESTRAINED BY EFFECTS OF PRIOR
PRECIP/CONVECTION...POCKETS OF HEATING ARE POSSIBLE IN CLOUD BREAKS.
 THIS WILL AUGMENT EFFECTS OF CONSIDERABLE MIDLEVEL ASCENT ON
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES.  THEREFORE...MERIDIONAL LOBE OF MLCAPE TO
NEAR 500 J/KG IS POSSIBLE...DESPITE RELATIVELY COOL SFC TEMPS. 
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES STILL WILL BE FAVORABLE UNTIL PASSAGE OF SFC
LOW...WITH 70-90 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO VERY LONG
DEEP-LAYER HODOGRAPHS AND 0-6 KM SHEARS EXCEEDING 75 KT.

..EDWARDS.. 04/01/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.