[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 010526
SWODY2
SPC AC 010525

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE
CRE 10 SSE SOP 15 W DAN 25 SE EKN 30 ENE LBE 25 WSW IPT 10 NNW ABE
10 ENE ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S CTY 30 WSW SAV
40 N CAE 25 NNW HKY 25 NW BKW 25 SSW HLG 25 N FKL 30 NNE BUF
...CONT... 30 NNE PBG 20 ESE GFL 25 ENE ISP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE BIH 40 NNE MER
45 ESE RBL 70 NNE LMT 10 ESE PDT 35 SW MSO 30 NNE WEY 40 NNE EVW 45
S ELY 20 ENE BIH.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC REGION...

...MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION...

01/00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TO A SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING...AND
NWD SOLUTION...OF SFC LOW AS INTENSE UPPER SPEED MAX...IN EXCESS OF
100 KT...EJECTS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY.  THIS
EVOLUTION WILL ALLOW MODIFIED MOISTURE THAT IS ALREADY NEAR THE
CAROLINA COAST TO EASILY SURGE NWD INTO THE DELMARVA REGION AHEAD OF
EXPECTED SFC LOW TRACK.  LATE DAY1/EARLY DAY2 FRONTAL POSITION
SHOULD BE NEAR THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS WRN
VA/NC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR A STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD PROGRESS
RAPIDLY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BY MID AFTERNOON. FARTHER
NORTH...MODELS SUGGEST A NARROW ZONE OF CLEARING/STEEP LAPSE RATES
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS VA INTO MD ALLOWING BOUNDARY LAYER TO BECOME MORE
BUOYANT AHEAD OF DEEPENING SFC LOW.  A SECONDARY LATE AFTERNOON MODE
OF MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS COULD EVOLVE THAT WOULD SPREAD ACROSS
THE DELMARVA INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  EXPECTED PROFILES SUPPORT
ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH VERY STRONG FLOW JUST OFF THE
SURFACE FAVORING DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY IF SQUALL LINE INDEED
FORMS AS ANTICIPATED.

..DARROW.. 04/01/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.