[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 241647
SWODY2
SPC AC 241647

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 AM CDT FRI SEP 24 2004

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E
MIA 45 ESE FMY 40 SSW AGR 30 SW ORL 15 N DAB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W CTY 30 SSE SSI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BOS 20 ESE POU
35 WNW ILG 45 NNE SHD 40 NNW SSU 25 WSW CRW UNI 10 N FKL 30 NE ROC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW FHU 35 SSW SOW
10 ENE CEZ 30 WSW 4FC 20 SE BFF 10 NE MHN 25 ENE LBF 35 WNW HLC 30
NW GCK 40 S LBL 45 NW CDS 35 SE CDS 30 NW ADM 50 WSW ARG 35 E JBR 35
W UOX 55 ESE SHV 35 SE BPT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ON SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE ERN
FL PENINSULA...

...FL E COAST...
PER LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY...CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE IS
EXPECTED TO BE VERY NEAR THE ERN FL COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS
SUGGESTS THAT A PRECEDING INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL LIKELY
OCCUR ON SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE COAST WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR MINI SUPERCELLS AND BRIEF TORNADOES.

...ERN NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND...
DE-AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS SERN
CANADA WITH 30-60M HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE NERN STATES ON
SATURDAY. ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD AT THIS TIME
AND LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DESPITE RATHER MODEST LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL LARGELY AID IN PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS
DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 500-700 J/KG DURING TIME OF
PEAK HEATING. WHEN COUPLED WITH UNDIRECTIONAL WSWLY WINDS INCREASING
TO 40-50 KTS IN THE 4-6 KM AGL LAYER...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A
FEW ORGANIZED TSTMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. THIS THREAT
SHOULD DIMINISH BY EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND COLLAPSE
OF BOUNDARY-LAYER.

...SRN NM/FAR WRN TX...
LITTLE CHANGE TO LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT IS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN
TODAY AND SATURDAY. DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH MODESTLY COOL
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF -12 TO -14 C AT 500 MB ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTRIBUTE TO STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BY AFTERNOON WITH
MLCAPES APPROACHING 600-800 J/KG. PERSISTENT SELY UPSLOPE FLOW IN
THE BOUNDARY-LAYER SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION
ALONG OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THOUGH THE MAGNITUDE OF TROPOSPHERIC WINDS IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK...STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT /PARTICULARLY
IN THE LOWEST 2-3 KM AGL/ ALONG WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED...STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL.

..MEAD.. 09/24/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.