[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 231622
SWODY2
SPC AC 231621

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CDT THU SEP 23 2004

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW FHU 45 NW SAD
20 SW GUP 20 WSW DRO 15 SE ASE 10 SE DEN 30 NNW LAA 25 SW EHA 35 W
AMA 55 WSW LBB 30 N MAF 35 ESE BGS 25 NW SEP 25 SW DUA 20 ENE FYV 30
SE TBN 55 NNW POF POF 60 ENE PBF 45 N HEZ 15 NNE BTR 40 SSE HUM.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE...MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DE-AMPLIFY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS IT TRANSLATES NEWD FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC.
MEANWHILE...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE
CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE DESERT SW...BETWEEN MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONES
OFF THE BAJA AND SERN U.S. COASTS.

AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE ATTENDANT TO WRN GREAT LAKES
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PUSH EWD/SEWD...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM LOW
PRESSURE OVER ERN ONTARIO SWWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND INTO
SWRN TX BY LATE AFTERNOON.

...SRN NM/SWRN TX...
INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO AID IN DIURNAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SACRAMENTO/GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN NM BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ACTIVE SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE SCHEME IN ETA BMJ SOUNDINGS APPEARS TO BE OVER-STEEPENING
LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. CORRESPONDING ETA KF SOUNDINGS DEPICT WEAKER LAPSE
RATES AND INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPES OF 500-800 J/KG/ WHICH APPEARS
MORE REASONABLE. THOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...THE
WEAK INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SHEAR SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT ANY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. THUS...NO PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED ATTM.

...SERN TX...
LATEST NHC GUIDANCE INDICATES REMNANT T.S. IVAN CIRCULATION MOVING
FROM N OF HOU WNWWD TOWARD THE HILL COUNTRY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY AFTER LANDFALL OF SYSTEM...MITIGATING ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT.

..MEAD.. 09/23/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.